710
FXUS61 KCTP 060909
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
509 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK
* A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PA WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
* EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE STAGNANT/REPEAT WET PATTERN SIGNALS
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TRAINING RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY NEAR THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MRMS DATA INDICATES HOURLY RAIN RATES HAVE LEVELED OFF
QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT AT <0.50 INCH/HR. NOTICEABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED IN CLEAR SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL RIDGES.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT MULTI-DAY
STRETCH OF WET WEATHER THROUGHOUT MOST OF CPA WILL BEGIN TO
UNRAVEL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED.
DESPITE ITS PENDING DEPARTURE, IT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. HIRES GUIDANCE FOCUSES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB LOW WILL COMBINE WITH 500-1,000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE, ROBUST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH PWS ARE ON
THE DECLINE, LOCALLY HEAVY NORTH-SOUTH TRAINING DOWNPOURS ON LOW
FFGS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOILS HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY
SATURATED.
TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA BEFORE POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BE +/- 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF EARLY MAY CLIMO WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS (60-65F MAXT) IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND
MILDER TEMPS (65-75F) THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OR
AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A BRIEF RESPITE OR LULL IN THE FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION. WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS WEDNESDAY PM - BUT ON THE MARGIN IT SHOULD BE
DRIER VS. RECENT DAYS. HIGHS TREND A BIT WARMER ON BALANCE WITH
DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 65-75F RANGE.
THE LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FCST TO CLOSE OFF OVER PA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE DATA PLACING MAX POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP TRENDS
FOR THURSDAY SHOULD BE FLAT TO DOWN DAY OVER DAY WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN TIER WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 50S FOLLOWED BY MINS IN THE 35-40F RANGE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HOPEFULLY, FRIDAY IS THE LAST DAY TO DEAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW #2. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS
SIGNALING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MADE A CHANGE TO THE TAF FOR MDT JUST NOW (150 AM), ADDED
THUNDER IN FOR 2 HOURS, GIVEN ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
GUSTY WEST WINDS AT JST AT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY NOTED ON RADAR
OVER CLEARFIELD COUNTY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NORTHWEST, BUT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST SHOWS A LEADING
EDGE TRYING TO WORK EASTWARD. THIS TELLS MYSELF THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY. THUS
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME. LIKE THE
LAST 2 NIGHTS, WHILE CIGS WILL BE LOW AT TIMES, VISIBILITIES
WILL BE GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE TIME OVERNIGHT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
VARIABLE CEILINGS, THOUGH GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS,
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,
BRINGING MOIST SE FLOW AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY IN A LULL FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. ANOTHER WAVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS / SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 01-06Z
THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN CEILINGS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUES.
BEST ESTIMATE IS THE AOO/UNV/JST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND OR HEAVY RAIN
IN THIS TIME PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS LIFTS NWD
FROM MD?VA AIRSPACE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ONLY SLIGHTLY ON TUE, BUT AFTER A
SHORT BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS; SOME LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PROLONGED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF TSRA/CB.
WED-FRI...SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/GARTNER/RXR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page