186
FXUS61 KCTP 062158
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
558 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
* DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
* TRENDING MILDER AND DRIER FOR FOR MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT MULTI-DAY
STRETCH OF WET WEATHER THROUGHOUT MOST OF CPA WILL BEGIN TO
UNRAVEL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z WED.
DESPITE ITS PENDING DEPARTURE, IT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. HIRES GUIDANCE FOCUSES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL PA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB LOW WILL COMBINE WITH 500-1,000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE, ROBUST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO
SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT. ALTHOUGH PWS ARE ON THE
DECLINE, LOCALLY HEAVY NORTH-SOUTH TRAINING DOWNPOURS ON LOW
FFGS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SOILS HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY
SATURATED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF
US-15 UNTIL 8PM. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LYCOMING, SULLIVAN, AND TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 8AM TOMORROW WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER AN AREA WITH VERY LOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL CAUSE
ISSUES, AND CURRENT STORM TRENDS PROMOTE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
ABOUT THIS REALITY.
TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA BEFORE POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE +/- 5 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF EARLY MAY CLIMO WITH COOLER CONDITIONS (60-65F
MAXT) IN THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND MILDER TEMPS (65-75F)
THROUGHOUT THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OR AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
NORTH TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BRIEF RESPITE OR LULL IN THE FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION. WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MTNS WEDNESDAY PM - BUT ON THE MARGIN IT SHOULD BE
DRIER VS. RECENT DAYS. HIGHS TREND A BIT WARMER ON BALANCE WITH
DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 65-75F RANGE.
THE LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FCST TO CLOSE OFF OVER PA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE DATA PLACING MAX POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP TRENDS
FOR THURSDAY SHOULD BE FLAT TO DOWN DAY OVER DAY WITH THE MOST
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN TIER WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 50S FOLLOWED BY MINS IN THE 35-40F RANGE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HOPEFULLY, FRIDAY IS THE LAST DAY TO DEAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW #2. GEFS AND ECENS OUTPUT
DEVELOP A SURFACE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AN AREA THAT WILL
BENEFIT FROM MORE RAIN. ENSEMBLE MEAN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH MAY END UP BEING UNDERDONE, DEPENDING ON THE
LONGEVITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATER FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SIGNALING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT AS WE GET
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THESE THINGS RARELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY AS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. AS THAT HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, DECREASING CLOUDS, DRY WEATHER, AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
COMES TO FRUITION.
AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS, OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY,
WILL BE GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM CENTRAL PA.
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT, MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY SHRA WILL LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM), WHILE GENERALLY VFR
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER DUSK WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND VFR WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL
02-03Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD, THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND AND AREAS OF
CLEARING WILL LEAD TO SOME VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. ANOTHER AREA
OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
HAVE SOME MOISTURE INPUT/ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GLAKES WHICH WILL
TARGET THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR THEN IFR/LIFR
OVERNIGHT.
PERTINENT PART OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
HAVE MENTIONED 3-5SM BR ALMOST EVERYWHERE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT, AND TOOK A COUPLE INTO IFR. DON'T FEEL STRONGLY
ABOUT ANY LIFR FOG AT THIS POINT, BUT THE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT
COULD ALLOW IT TO GET MURKY. WE SHOULD GET RID OF THE FOG AS THE
WIND PICKS BACK UP IN MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...-SHRA POSS NE IN AM, OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ037-041-042.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
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