356
FXUS61 KCTP 070233
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1033 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE ACROSS PA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PA. WE WILL SEE A
BREAK IN THE RAINY PATTERN WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE FOR MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA BEFORE POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEADY RAIN IS ALSO MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALLOWING US TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BRIEF LULL IN THE FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WED AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. WE STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS
WEDNESDAY PM - BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER VS. RECENT
DAYS. HIGHS TREND A BIT WARMER ON BALANCE WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN
THE 65-75F RANGE.
THE LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH FCST TO CLOSE OFF OVER PA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE DATA PLACING MAX POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 FOR LANCASTER, LEBANON,
AND SCHUYLKILL COS). TEMP TRENDS FOR THURSDAY SHOULD BE FLAT TO
DOWN DAY OVER DAY WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE
NORTHERN TIER WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S FOLLOWED BY
MINS IN THE 35-40F RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HOPEFULLY, FRIDAY IS THE LAST DAY TO DEAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW #2. GEFS AND ECENS OUTPUT
DEVELOP A SURFACE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AN AREA THAT WILL
BENEFIT FROM MORE RAIN. ENSEMBLE MEAN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH MAY END UP BEING UNDERDONE, DEPENDING ON THE
LONGEVITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATER FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SIGNALING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT AS WE GET
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THESE THINGS RARELY MOVE OUT AS QUICKLY AS
EXPECTED. MAY SEE LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. AS THAT HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, DECREASING CLOUDS, DRY WEATHER, AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
COMES TO FRUITION.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS, OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY,
WILL BE GRADUALLY WANING EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM CENTRAL PA.
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT, MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY SHRA WILL LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM), WHILE GENERALLY VFR
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER DUSK WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND VFR WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL
02-03Z TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD, THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND AND AREAS OF
CLEARING WILL LEAD TO SOME VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS. ANOTHER AREA
OF CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL
HAVE SOME MOISTURE INPUT/ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GLAKES WHICH WILL
TARGET THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR THEN IFR/LIFR
OVERNIGHT.
PERTINENT PART OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
HAVE MENTIONED 3-5SM BR ALMOST EVERYWHERE FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE NIGHT, AND TOOK A COUPLE INTO IFR. DON'T FEEL STRONGLY
ABOUT ANY LIFR FOG AT THIS POINT, BUT THE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT
COULD ALLOW IT TO GET MURKY. WE SHOULD GET RID OF THE FOG AS THE
WIND PICKS BACK UP IN MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...-SHRA POSS NE IN AM, OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ037-041-042.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
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