240
FXUS61 KCTP 070821
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
421 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SHORT BREAK IN THE MULTI-DAY WET PATTERN FOR MOST OF CPA TODAY
*RAIN SHOWERS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS
*RAIN-FREE AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS PROBABLE FOR MOTHER'S DAY
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE EXITED THE LOWER-SUSQ VALLEY
AS OF 08Z/4AM. CLOUD BREAKS COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WIND AND
RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM
THE CENTRAL RIDGES (KFIG/KUNV VICINITY) TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
SUSQ VALLEY KSEG/K22N. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW HAS ALSO LEAD TO LOW STRATUS AND
RIDGETOP FOG OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO INTERVALS OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
DRIER VS. RECENT DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE ENDLESS MTNS AND POCONOS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPS TREND +2-8
DEGREES WARMER VS. YESTERDAY WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE 65-75F
RANGE OR WITHIN +/- 5 DEGREES OF EARLY MAY CLIMO.
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ELONGATED, POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE AGAIN
IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORT LOW POPS IN THE NORTHERN TIER BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FCST LOWS IN THE 45-55F RANGE ARE +5-10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO, BUT LARGELY UNCHANGED NIGHT OVER NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED 500MB LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST OVER PA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY, COOLER, AND SHOWERY END TO THE
WEEK ON FRIDAY.
LIMITED INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SVR STORM THREAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MD LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE 3HR PMM NPS FROM
THE HREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH >50% CHANCE OF >1" QPF; ENSEMBLE MAX
AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END WOULD BE 2+ INCH SPOT AMOUNTS. WPC HAS
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CPA IN A MRGL RISK ERO WITH A SMALL SLGT OR
LEVEL 2/4 RISK DRAWN FROM THE COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS
WHERE SOIL SENSITIVITIES ARE HIGH DUE TO WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF RAIN
IN THE PAST 72 HOURS. SIMILAR SOIL SENSITIVITY (LOW FFGS)
EXISTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, BUT IN NARROWER SWATHS OR
STRIPES SUGGESTING A MORE LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM FLOOD THREAT. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN THE HWO.
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND ASSOCIATED QPF MAXIMUM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CPA. IT WILL
BE A COOL AND DAMP END TO THE WEEK WITH THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40-50F RANGE AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN
THE 50-65F RANGE -- TRENDING 5-10 DEGREES LOWER VS. THURSDAY
WITH SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN SIGNALING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT AS WE GET INTO
SATURDAY. MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA, BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A NICE START TO A PLEASANT
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE 70S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MON, RETURN FLOW WILL
USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE FOR MON-TUE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM THAT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF PA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WED, BRIEFLY DROPPING
VSBYS INTO THE 5-6SM RANGE AND CIGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 3 KFT
AGL.
AFTERWARD, THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND AND AREAS OF
CLEARING WILL LEAD TO SOME VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS, WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR LIKELY BETWEEN 06-12Z WED WITH AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT.
WE SHOULD GET RID OF THE FOG AS THE WIND PICKS BACK UP IN
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...-SHRA POSS NE IN AM, OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
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