815
FXUS61 KCTP 071620
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1220 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SHORT BREAK IN THE MULTI-DAY WET PATTERN FOR MOST OF CPA THIS
AFTERNOON
*A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING
A RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
*RAIN-FREE AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS PROBABLE FOR MOTHER'S DAY
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LATE MORNING VIA SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS VARIABLE AMOUNTS AND TYPES
OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SHALLOW, MAINLY SCTD CU WERE
EXPANDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS, WHILE TALLER CU (AND BKN-OVC
SKIES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES IN SPOTS. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN WAS
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH EXCELLENT VSBY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPS TREND +2-8 DEGREES WARMER VS. YESTERDAY WITH DAYTIME
MAXES IN THE 65-75F RANGE OR WITHIN +/- 5 DEGREES OF EARLY MAY
CLIMO.
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN ELONGATED, POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR FOG FORMATION WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE AGAIN
IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO PRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORT LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHERN TIER LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FCST LOWS
IN THE 45-55F RANGE ARE +5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO, BUT LARGELY
UNCHANGED NIGHT OVER NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED 500MB LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST OVER PA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CLOUDY, COOLER, AND SHOWERY END TO THE
WEEK ON FRIDAY.
LIMITED INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SVR STORM THREAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MD LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE 3HR PMM NPS FROM
THE HREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH >50% CHANCE OF >1" QPF; ENSEMBLE MAX
AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END WOULD BE 2+ INCH SPOT AMOUNTS. WPC HAS
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CPA IN A MRGL RISK ERO WITH A SMALL SLGT OR
LEVEL 2/4 RISK DRAWN FROM THE COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS
WHERE SOIL SENSITIVITIES ARE HIGH DUE TO WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF RAIN
IN THE PAST 72 HOURS. SIMILAR SOIL SENSITIVITY (LOW FFGS)
EXISTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, BUT IN NARROWER SWATHS OR
STRIPES SUGGESTING A MORE LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM FLOOD THREAT. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN THE HWO.
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND ASSOCIATED QPF MAXIMUM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CPA. IT WILL
BE A COOL AND DAMP END TO THE WEEK WITH THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40-50F RANGE AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN
THE 50-65F RANGE -- TRENDING 5-10 DEGREES LOWER VS. THURSDAY
WITH SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WHILE AREAS
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM.
WE MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER LINGER INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA, BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A NICE START TO A PLEASANT
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE 70S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MON, RETURN FLOW WILL
USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE FOR MON-TUE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM THAT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR BKN CIGS AT KJST SHOULD BE THE LOWEST CLOUDS/CIGS WE
CONTEND WITH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE SCT-BKN VFR
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAN FELL THE LAST TWO DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...SHOWERS LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...-SHRA POSS NE IN AM, OTHERWISE NO SIG WX.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...COLBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
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