038
FXUS61 KCTP 080133
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
933 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SHORT BREAK IN THE MULTI-DAY WET PATTERN FOR MOST OF CPA
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
*A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING
A RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS
*RAIN-FREE AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS PROBABLE FOR MOTHER'S DAY
WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A WEAK MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS AFTERNOON HAS GIFTED US WITH A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND OCCASIONAL TSRA OF THE 6 DAYS PRIOR.
AN ELONGATED, POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EDGE
TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE INITIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE OF THE HIGH/THIN
VARIETY, SO IT WON'T PREVENT AREAS OF FOG FROM FORMING LATER
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DIMINISHING
WIND. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN IN SPOTS BETWEEN
06Z-12Z THU.
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORT LOW POPS IN THE NORTHERN TIER LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FCST LOWS IN THE 45-55F RANGE
ARE +5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO, BUT LARGELY UNCHANGED NIGHT OVER
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED 500MB LOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST OVER PA ON FRIDAY.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET SEGMENTS HEADED OUR WAY WILL
COLLABORATE AND EVENTUALLY LINK UP TO SEND OUR WEATHER DOWNHILL
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS
GRADUALLY SE THROUGH THE REGION AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND RIDES NE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS PROCESS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
CLOUDY, COOLER, AND SHOWERY END TO THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
LIMITED INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SVR STORM THREAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MD LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE 3HR PMM NPS FROM
THE HREF INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE I-81 CORRIDOR WITH >50% CHANCE OF >1" QPF; ENSEMBLE MAX
AMOUNTS ON THE HIGH END WOULD BE 2+ INCH SPOT AMOUNTS. WPC HAS
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CPA IN A MRGL RISK ERO WITH A SMALL SLGT OR
LEVEL 2/4 RISK DRAWN FROM THE COAL REGION INTO THE POCONOS
WHERE SOIL SENSITIVITIES ARE HIGH DUE TO WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF RAIN
IN THE PAST 72 HOURS. SIMILAR SOIL SENSITIVITY (LOW FFGS)
EXISTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, BUT IN NARROWER SWATHS OR
STRIPES SUGGESTING A MORE LOCALIZED SHORT-TERM FLOOD THREAT. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK IN THE HWO.
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND ASSOCIATED QPF MAXIMUM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CPA. IT WILL
BE A COOL AND DAMP END TO THE WEEK WITH THURSDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40-50F RANGE AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN
THE 50-65F RANGE -- TRENDING 5-10 DEGREES LOWER VS. THURSDAY
WITH SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DEPARTURES FROM THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WHILE AREAS
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM.
WE MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER LINGER INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA, BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A NICE START TO A PLEASANT
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE 70S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MON, RETURN FLOW WILL
USHER IN INCREASING MOISTURE FOR MON-TUE. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM THAT MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT WIND AND COOLING OF THE MOIST GROUND WILL CREATE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG AND A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAN FELL
THE LAST TWO DAYS. THE CHANCE FOR FOG IS HIGHEST AT BFD AND JST
(50-60 PCT CHANCE) WITH CHANCES DROPPING TO 30-40 PCT INTO
AOO, UNV, AND IPT, AND LESS THAN 30 PCT AT LNS AND MDT. VSBY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 12-14Z THU.
LAYERED STRATUS AND STRATOCU WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING (NW) THROUGH MID HOURS (SE) WITH
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON (MAINLY ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF PA). CIGS UNDER A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW COULD DIP
INTO/OR STAY IN THE IFR TO LOW IFR RANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KBFD AND KJST, WHILE OTHER AIRFIELDS IN
THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WILL DEAL WITH MAINLY
PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH TO NNE BREEZE. RESTRICTIONS
IN PERIODS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF FRI, WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE LATER FRI.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...SLGT CHC -SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTH
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...COLBERT/BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
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