995
FXUS61 KCTP 281701
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
* CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH SOAKING RAINFALL
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT
* REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF MAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* FOLLOWING ANOTHER COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL
FINALLY TRANSITION TO MORE CONSISTENT EARLY SUMMERTIME WARMTH
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1255 PM UPDATE:
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH, BUT ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SOUTH AND WEST OF STATE
COLLEGE TOWARDS JOHNSTOWN. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE STEADIER RAIN EXPECTED TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS,
BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
MRMS RADAR TRENDS SINCE MIDNIGHT HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER WITH 6-7F TD DEPRESSIONS AT 08Z, SO IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL 12Z OR SO UNTIL RAIN REACHES THE ENDLESS MTNS (TIOGA
COUNTY).
CLOUDY, DANK AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY -- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS
BETWEEN 50-60F ARE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE MAY (NOT FAR FROM THE DAILY RECORD LOW-MAX - SEE
CLIMATE SECTION) AND WILL LIKELY SET A NADIR UNTIL OCTOBER.
STRONG EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A CLASSIC
CAD PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM
AROUND 0.40-0.50" IN THE NORTHERN TIER TO 1-1.25" OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE STEADY RAIN TAPERS TO MORE INTERMITTENT/SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT A VERY TIGHT DIURNAL
RANGE WITH ONLY ~1-3F SPREAD BETWEEN MAX/MIN TEMPS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE CLOUD BREAKS, WARMER TEMPS AND A LULL IN
PRECIP WITH ONLY A FEW/SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FCST HIGHS SURGE +15-20F VS. WEDNESDAY
INTO THE UPPER 60S/70S.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER IL/IN/KY EARLY FRIDAY WILL DIG THROUGH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND HELP TO CARVE OUT A FORMIDABLE AND
ANOMALOUS (2-3 SIGMA) LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO
CLOSE OUT MAY AND OPEN THE MONTH OF JUNE. 100M 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER NOVA BY 31/00Z WHICH IS FCST
TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG I95 THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
IN LIGHT OF THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING, THE LATEST MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED WETTER
ON FRIDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PA WHERE A
PM CONVECTION MAY TAP INTO 1+ INCH PWS AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MRGL RISK ERO OVER THIS
AREA FOR D3. WE WERE KEEN TO INCREASE POPS PARTICULARLY NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF US22 AND I81 BASED ON BLENDED WPC/NBM
QPF.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATE TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE, AN AMPLIFIED,
BLOCKY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT WE'VE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL WEEKS
(NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ALASKAN TROUGH, WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADIAN
RIDGE, AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN CONUS/SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN
TROUGH) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
THIS MEANS MORE COOL, UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE COMMONWEALTH.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE HOPE IN THE MODEL WORLD THAT THINGS WILL
TREND BETTER NEXT WEEK, WITH AN OVERALL DEAMPLIFICATION AND
SHIFT OF THE PATTERN (SIGNIFICANTLY RISING HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS). THAT BEING SAID, NUMERICAL PREDICTION
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO BREAK UP THE ONGOING BLOCKY
PATTERN FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THINGS DEVELOP OVER TIME. AT THIS POINT, THOUGH, AT LEAST A
TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER, MORE SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES IS FORESEEN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS UNDERWAY AT ALL AIRFIELDS THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY, AND
LIKELY DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS AT ALL AIRFIELDS (TO IFR AND
EVENTUALLY LIFR FOR MANY BY THIS EVENING. HIGHEST SIGNALS FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT BFD/JST/AOO/MDT/LNS AFTER 20Z
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW- TO- MODERATE (~30-50%) CONFIDENCE.
LLWS REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CANCELLED OUT BY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, THUS LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR WIND SHEAR.
CONDITIONS REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR FLYING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THU...LINGERING SHOWERS, THEN TRENDING DRIER WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY.
FRI-SAT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/BJG
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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