298
FXUS61 KCTP 290114
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
914 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN TODAY. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE MUCH
DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND LIKELY LASTS THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER SATURDAY, NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED BEFORE LATE NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
MID EVENING UPDATE.
DID ISSUE A SPS FOR A COUPLE OF COUNTIES NORTHEAST OF MDT,
GIVEN SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING.
THE FOG SHOULD THIN OUT, AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER ON.
NOT MUCH LEFT ON THE RADAR, MOST OF THE AREA HAS LOST THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN LEFT IS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH, WITH A SMALL AREA JUST WEST OF THE OFFICE HERE.
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CURRENT TEMPERATURES.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AFTER A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TODAY, OVERALL
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AROUND OVERNIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE MOIST AIRMASS
AND TODAY'S RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY FROM TODAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS; MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MID EVENING UPDATE.
LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR WEST.
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
MINOR CHANGES SO FAR, WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR NOW.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
OUR REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S). A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THESE SHOULD BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.
A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AN INCH TO
1.5 INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE CENTRAL PA REMAINS IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC. THIS RAINFALL MAY
BE A BIT ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED SHOWERS, BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME HINTS THAT SUMMER WILL MAKE A VISIT FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF JUNE. COULD USE THE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO DRY
THINGS OUT A BIT.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MUCH DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY HOLDS ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS THE TROUGH WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
BEGINNING ON MONDAY, THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THEN MID
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY, AND THEN PERHAPS WIDESPREAD 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AS RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AS CEILINGS LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THESE RAIN SHOWERS AS THEY
GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN, THIS WILL GIVE WAY FOR VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP, WITH AT LEAST IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY LIFR. BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING/THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR TO FUEL
ALTERNATE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL SITES
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT HARRISBURG SO FAR, AS OF 8 PM, HAS
BEEN 57 DEGREES. THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMP
FOR THIS DATE, UNLESS THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBS UP SOME BY
MIDNIGHT.
RECORD LOWEST MAX TEMPERATURE FOR 5/28:
HARRISBURG 57 IN 1996
WILLIAMSPORT 54 IN 1996
ALTOONA 51 IN 1968
BRADFORD 49 IN 1984
STATE COLLEGE 52 IN 1917
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS (THROUGH 5/27)
HARRISBURG 6.80" 9TH WETTEST | 9.71" WETTEST IN 1989
WILLIAMSPORT 6.40" 10TH WETTEST | 9.91" WETTEST IN 1919
ALTOONA 6.17" 7TH WETTEST | 7.31" WETTEST IN 1960
STATE COLLEGE 5.93" 21ST WETTEST | 9.45" WETTEST IN 1894
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
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