052
FXUS61 KCTP 291003
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
603 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LOCALLY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
COUPLE OF PASSING RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
* PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
* BREEZY AND COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND/LAST DAY OF MAY
FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND AND SUMMERTIME WARMUP INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS, AREAS OF DENSE RIDGE-TOP FOG, AND POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE/MIST COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE.
A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER DAY AHEAD ACROSS CPA WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS (VARIABLY CLOUDY) THIS AFTERNOON -- MAX TEMPS ARE
FCST TO RAMP HIGHER BY +15 TO +20 DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CPA FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER/LOW PWAT AIRMASS AND
SWIFT WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT SUGGESTS A WORST CASE SCENARIO BEING
A VERY BRIEF AND BARELY MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWER PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA. SPARSE COVERAGE TRANSLATES INTO MOST LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY WITH MAX POPS ALONG THE MD LINE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF I-81. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPS ABOUT
+5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 50-60F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE LAST 2 DAYS OF MAY 2025 LOOK TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS A DEEP
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN
U.S. LATEST MODEL DATA FAVORS TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION PIEDMONT REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/DOWNPOURS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MD LINE. STRONG 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SPAWN A SFC LOW TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 00Z SATURDAY
THAT IS PROJECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE I95 CORRIDOR.
A SECONDARY QPF MAX SIGNAL MAY EXIST ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE LOW TRACK WITHIN A SHARP DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR THE PA/NJ
BORDER. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF FREQUENT
SHOWER/ISOT ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO THE 60-70F RANGE WITH
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH FROM THE WNW MAKING IT FEEL COOLER - A
BREEZY AND COOLER END TO A WET MAY 2025 IS A SURE BET. TYPICAL
STRATOCU FIELD IS LIKELY TO COVER AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE BRISK NW FLOW
REGIME. APPARENT TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID 30S/40S ACROSS MOST OF CPA - QUITE A CHILLY START TO JUNE!
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME HINTS THAT SUMMER WILL MAKE A VISIT FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF JUNE. COULD USE THE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO DRY
THINGS OUT A BIT.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MUCH DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY HOLDS ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS THE TROUGH WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
BEGINNING ON MONDAY, THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THEN MID
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY, AND THEN PERHAPS WIDESPREAD 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH THIS MORNING. BY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON/18Z. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
MDT AND LNS AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR. SCATTERED PM SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF LNS AND
MDT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR.
CLIMATE
HARRISBURG TIED THE RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 57 DEGREES
YESTERDAY 5/28. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW-MAX WAS SET IN 1996.
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
SITE 2025 MONTH-TO-DATE | WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
HARRISBURG 7.94" 2ND WETTEST | 9.71" IN 1989
WILLIAMSPORT 6.65" 6TH WETTEST | 9.91" IN 1919
ALTOONA 6.84" 2ND WETTEST | 7.31" IN 1960
STATE COLLEGE 6.27" 9TH WETTEST | 9.45" IN 1894
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/MARTIN
AVIATION...BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF/MARTIN
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