996
FXUS61 KCTP 291904
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
* PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
* BREEZY AND COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND/LAST DAY OF MAY
FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND AND SUMMERTIME WARMUP INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
A WARMER AND DRIER DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS CPA WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS (VARIABLY CLOUDY) THIS AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CPA
FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SPARSE COVERAGE
TRANSLATES INTO MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY WITH MAX POPS ALONG
THE MD LINE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF I-81. TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPS ABOUT +5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE 50-60F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE LAST 2 DAYS OF MAY 2025 LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED AS A DEEP
TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND EASTERN
US. LATEST MODEL DATA FAVORS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA FRI
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPAWN A SFC LOW TO
THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 00Z SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT, WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF FREQUENT
SHOWER/ISOT ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA. TEMPS
ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN THE 50S ACROSS THE LAURELS
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMEST SPOT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. RAINFALL AMTS
BETWEEN FRI AND SAT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 0.25" IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO 0.50-1.0" ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AND PUSHING 1.25" ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TYPICAL STRATOCU FIELD IS LIKELY TO COVER AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE BRISK NW
FLOW REGIME. APPARENT TEMPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST
IN THE MID 30S/40S ACROSS MOST OF CPA - QUITE A CHILLY START TO
JUNE!
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME HINTS THAT SUMMER WILL MAKE A VISIT FOR THE FIRST FULL
WEEK OF JUNE. COULD USE THE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO DRY
THINGS OUT A BIT.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MUCH DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA AND LIKELY HOLDS ON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS THE TROUGH WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
BEGINNING ON MONDAY, THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND A RETURN TO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THEN MID
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY, AND THEN PERHAPS WIDESPREAD 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PA, WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON LONGEST AT LNS (EXPECTED TO TREND
VFR AROUND 20Z). A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
MDT AND LNS AS LOWER CIGS AND SOME FOG PUSHES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING IS ABOUT 50 PCT AT LNS AND 40 PCT AT MDT. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE SAME AREA. FARTHER NORTH/WEST, MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BFD,
WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE (50 PCT CHC) MAINLY BETWEEN 06-14Z
FRI.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRI, BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN LATER FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA, HEAVIEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR. SCATTERED PM SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF LNS AND
MDT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR.
CLIMATE
HARRISBURG TIED THE RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 57 DEGREES
YESTERDAY 5/28. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW-MAX WAS SET IN 1996.
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
SITE MAY 2025 | WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
HARRISBURG 7.94" 4TH WETTEST | 9.71" IN 1989
WILLIAMSPORT 6.65" 8TH WETTEST | 9.91" IN 1919
ALTOONA 6.84" 4TH WETTEST | 7.31" IN 1960
STATE COLLEGE 6.47" 12TH WETTEST | 9.45" IN 1894
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/MARTIN
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
CLIMATE...MARTIN/COLBERT
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