722
FXUS61 KCTP 311647
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PUSH SE AND END GRADUALLY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW AVERAGE TODAY TREND WARMER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/
SOME VERTICAL DEVELKOPMENT TO THE SHRA S OF UNV, AND WE CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A FEW LTG STRIKES FROM THIS CLUSTER AS IT PUSHES SE
THRU THE AFTN. EXPECT A FEW MORE CELLS TO POP UP, BUT SVR THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED, AND LIMITED MAINLY TO PLACES SE OF
HARRISBURG. DRIER AIR SHOULD START WORKING INTO THE NW SOON, BUT
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLD SHRA WILL KEEP TD FROM GETTING <40F UNTIL
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
PREV...
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION PREVIOUSLY STATIONED OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT
BEGINS ENTERING W PA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER SHOWER- FILLED DAY ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
INSTABILITY EARLY ON IN THE DAY REMAINS EXTREMELY LIMITED, WITH
MINIMAL RECOVERY IN INSTABILITY. SOME INITIAL CLEARING ACROSS
SOUTH- CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DESTABILIZATION WITH RECENT HREF GUIDANCE OUTLINING
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN ~500-600 J/KG AND AMPLE LIFT AND MARGINAL
SHEAR. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS LEADS TO A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING.
GRADIENT WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF GUSTY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING COLD
AIR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW
AVERAGE TO START OFF JUNE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REVERTING CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF
THE SHORT-TERM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY PREVAIL BY MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT-TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON THE LARGE-SCALE, THE AMPLIFIED, BLOCKY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL WEEKS IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN
OUT AND PROGRESS NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SIGNALS A TREND
TOWARDS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LESS RAINFALL
THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY
MONDAY, THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TURNS MUCH WARMER, WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND COULD
EVEN MAKE A RUN AT 90 ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD MAKE A CLOSE ENOUGH APPROACH TO
THE COMMONWEALTH TO BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHRA STILL POSS FOR THE NEXT HR AT BFD AND JST, BUT EVEN AOO-
UNV-IPT CORRIDOR WILL ONLY HAVE VERY SCT VERY LIGHT SHRA FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTN. MOST OF THE SHRA WILL BE S OF MDT AND LNS
WELL BEFORE DARK (22Z AT THE LATEST). A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT (TALLER) CLOUDS POPPING UP IN THE SE, AND MAY MAKE
SOME TS IN THE NEXT HR. THE PROXIMITY OF TS TO THE TERMINALS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BUT, A VCTS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE 18Z PKG FOR THOSE TWO
TERMINALS. GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT
DIE DOWN TO UNDER 10KT WITH LITTLE/NO GUSTINESS THRU THE NIGHT.
THEY WILL PICK UP A LITTLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HEATING/MIXING
OF THE DAY. BUT, GUSTS WILL TOP OUT AT 20KT. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MID-WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
SITE MAY 1-30, 2025 | WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
HARRISBURG 9.72" WETTEST | 9.71" IN 1989 (PREVIOUS)
WILLIAMSPORT 6.99" 5TH WETTEST | 9.91" IN 1919
ALTOONA 7.24" 3RD WETTEST | 7.31" IN 1960
STATE COLLEGE 6.47" 9TH WETTEST | 9.45" IN 1894 (~5/29)
RECORD PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED IN HARRISBURG ON MAY 30TH
WHEN 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. THIS BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.39 INCHES SET BACK IN 1953. FOR REFERENCE,
A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT IN HARRISBURG SINCE
1888.
RECORD PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT JOHNSTOWN, WHERE 1.05
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
0.89 INCHES SET BACK IN 1975.
A SEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (~990MB) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THE
RECORD LOW PRESSURE FOR MAY AT HARRISBURG IS 983.4MB.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/NPB
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...DANGELO/EVANEGO/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/NPB
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