163
FXUS61 KCTP 312030
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
430 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PUSH SE AND END GRADUALLY THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE
A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WELL-BELOW AVERAGE TODAY TREND WARMER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE. BUT, THE SFC LOW OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE UP INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST PLACES
WILL STILL HAVE WIND SPEEDS IN THE 8-10KT RANGE.
SHRA ARE STAYING WELL BEHAVED, BUT EVERY ONCE AND A WHILE
SOMETHING GETS TALL ENOUGH THAT IT COULD MAKE LIGHTNING. SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS LOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. BUT, INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR STILL AVAILABLE THRU 5-6PM PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR
SE. DEWPOINTS ARE GETTING LOWER (QUICKLY AT AOO) AS DRIER AIR
INVADES. EXPECT SCT SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN THE SE, BUT
THEY SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT DONE OVER THE NRN MTNS, AND DONE BY
5-6PM IN THE CENTRAL ZONES. CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA (ESP S OF I-80) EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPS WON'T GET CRAZY COLD,
DESPITE OUR COOL START TO THE NIGHT AND 0C 8H ISOTHERM INVADING
THE N. EXPECT THE WIND TO HELP A LITTLE, AND LOW TEMPS WILL TURN
OUT NEAR 40F IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND M40S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AFTER THE COOL START, THE SUN SHOULD WORK ON THE DAMP GROUND
AND THE COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL HELP STRATOCU TO FORM AND CONGEST
OVER THE NRN HALF+ OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE SRN
HALF WILL END UP MOSTLY SUNNY. THERE IS A TINY CHC FOR A --SHRA
OVER THE NRN TIER, BUT THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD
EVAPORATE ANY BIGGER DROPLETS BEFORE THEY HIT THE GROUND. MAXES
MAY FALL SHORT OF 60F N AND PROBABLY GET RIGHT TO 70F IN THE
SE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON THE LARGE-SCALE, THE AMPLIFIED, BLOCKY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL WEEKS IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN
OUT AND PROGRESS NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SIGNALS A TREND
TOWARDS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LESS RAINFALL
THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY
MONDAY, THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TURNS MUCH WARMER, WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND COULD
EVEN MAKE A RUN AT 90 ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD MAKE A CLOSE ENOUGH APPROACH TO
THE COMMONWEALTH TO BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN CIGS COMING DOWN SOME,
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS.
LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS PULLING EASTWARD
AWAY FROM LANCASTER COUNTY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ONLY A TINY CHC FOR A SHRA FOR THE NEXT HR AT BFD, BUT EVEN
JST-AOO-UNV-IPT CORRIDOR WILL ONLY HAVE VERY SCT VERY LIGHT
SHRA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. MOST OF THE SHRA WILL BE S OF LNS
BEFORE DARK (22-23Z). A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
(TALLER) TO THE CLOUDS POPPING UP IN THE SE, AND MAY TURN TO A
TS, BUT NOT LIKELY. DID MENTION VCTS FOR MDT AND LNS FOR AN HR
OR TWO. GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT
DIE DOWN TO UNDER 10KT WITH LITTLE/NO GUSTINESS THRU THE NIGHT.
THEY WILL PICK UP A LITTLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HEATING/MIXING
OF THE DAY. BUT, GUSTS WILL TOP OUT AT 20KT. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA, WHERE SOME LOW/MVFR CLOUDS COULD
LINGER. THE STRATOCU WILL THICKEN UP/CONGEST IN THE NRN HALF OF
THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE SUN WORKS ON THE DAMP GROUND UNDER THE
COOL POCKET ALOFT (STILL >3KFT BASES, THOUGH). VFR THEN RULES
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST, HOT AND HUMID SE.
CLIMATE
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
SITE MAY 1-30, 2025 | WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
HARRISBURG 9.72" WETTEST | 9.71" IN 1989 (PREVIOUS)
WILLIAMSPORT 6.99" 5TH WETTEST | 9.91" IN 1919
ALTOONA 7.24" 3RD WETTEST | 7.31" IN 1960
STATE COLLEGE 6.47" 9TH WETTEST | 9.45" IN 1894 (~5/29)
RECORD PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED IN HARRISBURG ON MAY 30TH
WHEN 1.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. THIS BROKE THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.39 INCHES SET BACK IN 1953. FOR REFERENCE,
A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT IN HARRISBURG SINCE
1888.
RECORD PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT JOHNSTOWN, WHERE 1.05
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
0.89 INCHES SET BACK IN 1975.
A SEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (~990MB) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. THE
RECORD LOW PRESSURE FOR MAY AT HARRISBURG IS 983.4MB.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/NPB
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL/NPB
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