586
FXUS61 KCTP 011818
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* FROST IS EXPECTED FOR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT, WITH
PATCHY FROST IN THE LAURELS AND PERHAPS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, BEFORE
A RETURN TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY.
* A TREND TOWARDS MUCH WARMER, SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS IS
FORESEEN THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS WE LOSE (HEATING OF) THE SUN, WE SHOULD ALSO LOSE THE THICK
STRATOCU OVER THE CWA, LATEST IN THE NE, OF COURSE. THAT WILL
LEAVE US WITH A FAIR AND COLD NIGHT FOR EARLY JUNE. WHILE WE
LIKELY WON'T HIT ANY RECORD LOWS, IT WILL GET COLD AND WE LOSE
THE WIND, TOO. THE EXPECTED MINS IN THE M30S OVER THE NW THIRD
OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SMOKE ALOFT THRU THE NIGHT. PATCHY
FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE COLD SINKS/VALLEYS/OPEN AREAS OF
THE NEXT TIER OR TWO OF ZONES TO THE SE OF THERE INCLUDING THE
LAURELS AND SOME OF THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION (JST-UNV-IPT).
WE HAVE POSTED A FROST ADVY FOR THE NW, AND STRONGLY CONSIDERED
ONE FOR THE NEXT FEW ZONES SE. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THERE ACROSS THE BOARD, AND GIVE US LESS
CONFIDENCE IN GOING ANY COLDER.
AFTER THE FROSTY START, WE SHOULD BE GOOD TO GET INTO THE 66-73F
RANGE FOR MAXES ON MONDAY AS WE ADD ABOUT 2-3C ONTO 8H TEMPS AND
WE MIX UP TO AND PAST 8H. BY THE END OF THE DAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR EAST AND THE SFC HIGH/RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FAIR AND DRY HOLDS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A GRADUAL
RETURN FLOW OCCURRING. WE WILL SEE A BIG JUMP UPWARDS IN TEMPS
ON TUESDAY VS MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ~5F FOR WED AS 8H TEMPS
APPROACH 20C. DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE ON WED AND
MAKE IT FEEL TRULY SUMMER-LIKE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATE EVENING UPDATE.
12Z GFS AND EC NOT REALLY CLOSE BY 240 HRS. EITHER WAY, EXPECT
SOME WET WEATHER AGAIN AFTER WED, SO ENJOY MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WHEN WE CAN HAVE BOTH SOME WARM WEATHER AND DRY
WEATHER, WHICH WE REALLY NEED AFTER HOW WET IT HAS BEEN THIS
MONTH OF MAY. SOME LOCATIONS OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THIS
MAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE AREA STILL BY NEXT
WEEKEND, SO WHILE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BE LOWER BY THEN
AFTER HIGHER POPS BEFORE THAT PERIOD, THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
THAT FAR FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF PA.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ON THE LARGE-SCALE, THE AMPLIFIED, BLOCKY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
WE'VE SEEN NOW FOR SEVERAL WEEKS IS STILL FORECAST TO FLATTEN
OUT AND PROGRESS NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SIGNALS A TREND
TOWARDS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LESS RAINFALL
THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.
AS FOR THE DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER, AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY
MONDAY, THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TURNS MUCH WARMER, WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND COULD
EVEN MAKE A RUN AT 90 ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD MAKE A CLOSE ENOUGH APPROACH TO
THE COMMONWEALTH TO BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAVORED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIND STILL GUSTING TO 20-26KT AT MOST SITES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY, BUT WE WILL LOSE THE SUN AND ALMOST ALL, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE WIND TONIGHT. THE THICK STRATOCU MAY HOLD A SPRINKLE IN THE
THICKEST PART OF THE DECK. BUT, THESE SHOULD ALSO GO AWAY AS WE
LOSE THE SUN. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO SLINK NE AS THEY DISSOLVE.
THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF VALLEY FOG OVER THE NW, BUT THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WILL TRY TO BALANCE THAT OUT. WE HAVE HAD
A FULL DAY OF DEEP MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE SOIL. NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OR CONFIDENCE TO PUT A MENTION OF FOG IN ANYWHERE
(MAINLY BFD AND IPT WOULD BE THE SPOTS) AT THIS POINT. EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP TO THE EAST OF IPT MONDAY
AFTN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION. IT WILL BE A GOOD VFR DAY WITH
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND (GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE 12-14KT AT THE
WORST). VFR RULES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TO BEGIN WITH SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...VFR EXPECTED.
THU...POTENTIAL BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA NW.
FRI...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA, ESP NW. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AND
IFR IN THE TSRA.
CLIMATE
MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION RANKINGS
SITE 2025 | WETTEST MAY ON RECORD
-----------------------------------------------------------
HARRISBURG* 10.02" WETTEST | 9.71" IN 1989 (PREVIOUS)
WILLIAMSPORT 7.18" 7TH WETTEST | 9.91" IN 1919
ALTOONA* 7.34" WETTEST | 7.31" IN 1960 (PREVIOUS)
STATE COLLEGE 7.56" T-7TH WETTEST | 9.45" IN 1894
(* DENOTES THAT MAY 2025 SET A NEW RECORD IN PRECIPITATION IN
THEIR RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD REMAINS LISTED
UNDER THE "WETTEST MAY ON RECORD" COLUMN.)
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006-010-
011-017.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...NPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page