317
FXUS61 KCTP 251946
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
346 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
* NOT AS HOT, BUT NEARER NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
STARTING TODAY THROUGH THE LAST WEEKEND IN JUNE WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
SHRA/TSRA SPREAD OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA, PERHAPS A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OVER THE S THAN EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. BUT, THE COVERAGE
IS GENERALLY 40-70PCT. MANY PEOPLE ARE GETTING OR WILL GET WET
BEFORE 10PM. THE CELLS ARE MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN WE
EXPECTED, TOO. BUT, THERE IS STILL A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IF A PLACE GETS MORE THAN ONE SHOT OF RAIN. PWAT IN THE 1.5-1.8"
RANGE. EARLIER STORMS DID GROW QUICKLY OVER THE SRN TIER WHERE
THE MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS HIGHEST. SPC MESO GRAPHICS STILL PAINT
>2000J/KG OVER ALL OF SRN PA AND THE REST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AS THE FORCING OVER THE N AND CENTRAL COUNTIES COUNTIES TO DROP
S THRU THE EVENING, WE DO EXPECT THERE TO BE A RAMP UP IN
STRENGTH.
TEMPS ARE GOING TO HIT THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT, SO FOG IS A
LIKELIHOOD OVER THE CWA, BUT MOST-SO IN THE VALLEYS WHERE WE
HAVE HAD RAIN FALL. A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT A
SLAM-DUNK TO FORM OVER THE NW. IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR IT TO
FORM IF IT DRIES OUT TOO MUCH THERE. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT MOST WILL BE
GONE AFTER MIDNIGHT/1 AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING, THE
PICTURE ON THE RADAR WILL END UP MUCH THE SAME AS WED. SHRA/TSRA
POP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. HIGHEST COVERAGE/POPS LOOK
LIKE IT WILL BE IN THE EAST. MORE HEAVY RAINERS AND SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE THE HEAT WORRIES
REDUCE ON THURSDAY, BUT A FEW COUNTIES ALONG THE MD BORDER WILL
TOUCH 100 HEAT INDEX AGAIN. DECIDED TO MAKE IT A LITTLE EASIER
ON THE WWA MAP AND ALLOW THE CURRENT HEADLINES TO END AS PLANNED
AT 00Z, BUT ADD A NEW HEAT ADVY FOR THOSE SRN COUNTIES FOR JUST
THE DAYTIME THURS. NO REAL CHANGE TO THURS PM - WITH STORMS
LINGERING LONGER THURS NIGHT THAN WED NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
WAGGLE BACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY BUT STALL
OVERNIGHT. MINS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NE ON THE NE
SIDE OF THE FRONT, THAN IN THE W.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COUPLED WITH
PLACEMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL SPELL AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY, THUS THE UPTICK IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN.
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO
A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY IF DRIER AIR CAN SETTLE INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO EASTERN CANADA THEN LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF A
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE
BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STORMS SPLATTERED ACROSS THE STATE AT 18Z, WITH ONLY THE FAR NW
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. WE'LL LEAVE A SMALL MENTION OF
PRECIP IN BFD FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT, THE MORE STABLE
AIR FROM OVER THE LAKE IS MOVING INTO THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE,
A SHRA/TSRA COULD HIT AT ANY TIME(S) BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET.
MUCH OF THESE PULSE STORMS WILL DIE OFF AS WE LOSE HEATING/SUN.
WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NOW WILL DRAPE ITSELF
OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY WHERE IT ENDED
UP RAINING. THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE 100% OF THE AREA, AND MORE
SO IN THE VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY AT MOST
SITES FOR A FEW HRS LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE THURS AM
AFTER JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUN. THERE COULD BE A DECK OF
LOW/IFR CLOUDS INSTEAD OR IN ADDITION TO ANY FOG OVER THE NW.
THE HIGH MOISTURE LINGERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OUR PATTERN. DAILY SHRA/TSRA, AND ANY
COULD MAKE SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS. WILL DRAW UP THURSDAY
MUCH LIKE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...CONTINUED IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY IN THE AFTNS
AND EVES. LESS HOT.
CLIMATE
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY FOR A WEEK OR MORE, BUT
THE CURRENT 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
ABOVE AVG TEMPS FOR PA, ESP IN THE NW/GREAT LAKES.
THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE SITES BROKE OR TIED THEIR DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY JUNE 23, 2025
ALTOONA: LOW OF 72F BROKE THE RECORD OF 71F SET LAST YEAR.
ALTOONA: HIGH OF 93F BROKE THE RECORD OF 90F SET IN 1994.
BRADFORD: HIGH OF 89F BROKE THE RECORD OF 86F SET IN 2013.
HARRISBURG: HIGH OF 97F TIED THE RECORD SET IN 1965.
STATE COLLEGE: HIGH OF 92F THE BROKE RECORD OF 91F SET IN 1966.
WILLIAMSPORT: HIGH OF 97F THE BROKE RECORD OF 94F SET IN 1923.
TUESDAY JUNE 24, 2025
ALTOONA: LOW OF 70F BROKE THE RECORD OF 68F SET IN 1994.
ALTOONA: HIGH OF 93F BROKE THE RECORD OF 91F SET IN 1966.
BRADFORD: HIGH OF 89F BROKE THE RECORD OF 86F SET IN 2013.
HARRISBURG: LOW OF 78F BROKE THE RECORD OF 75F SET IN 2010.
HARRISBURG: HIGH OF 98F TIED THE RECORD SET IN 1966.
STATE COLLEGE: LOW OF 74F BROKE THE RECORD OF 70F SET IN 1948.
THE FOLLOWING TEMPERATURE RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED
OR BROKEN ON JUNE 25TH:
HARRISBURG: LOW OF 75F IN 1976
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034-035-045-046-049>053-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ034>036-
063>065.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
056-057-059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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