170
FXUS61 KCTP 252340
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
* NOT QUITE AS HOT TO END THE WEEK, WITH HEAT BEING GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
* IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLIP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS AND WE LOSE THE HEAT OF
THE DAY.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO
THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. FOG IS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN FALL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING, AND
WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP BY AFTN.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.
HEAT CONCERNS WILL BE REDUCED ON THURSDAY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW
COUNTIES ALONG THE MD BORDER THAT MAY TOUCH THE 100 HEAT INDEX
AND HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
STORMS MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THURS NIGHT THAN WED NIGHT, AS
THE BOUNDARY WAGGLES BACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
AND STALLS OVERNIGHT. MINS THURS NIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON THE NE SIDE OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COUPLED WITH
PLACEMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL SPELL AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH CENTRAL PA
ON SATURDAY, THUS THE UPTICK IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THEN.
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO
A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY IF DRIER AIR CAN SETTLE INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO EASTERN CANADA THEN LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF A
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE
BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED -TSRA CONTINUED TO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
AS WE APPROACH SUNSET. THERE ISN'T MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THESE
PULSE SUMMER TIME STORMS. THESE PULSE STORMS WILL DIE OFF AS WE
LOSE HEATING/SUN. WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
NOW WILL DRAPE ITSELF OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND BE STUBBORN TO
MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY WHERE IT ENDED
UP RAINING. THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE 100% OF THE AREA, AND MORE
SO IN THE VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY AT MOST
SITES FOR A FEW HRS LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE THURS AM
AFTER JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUN. THERE COULD BE A DECK OF
LOW/IFR CLOUDS INSTEAD OR IN ADDITION TO ANY FOG OVER THE NW.
THE HIGH MOISTURE LINGERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OUR PATTERN. DAILY SHRA/TSRA, AND ANY
COULD MAKE SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS. WILL DRAW UP THURSDAY
MUCH LIKE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...CONTINUED IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY IN THE AFTNS
AND EVES. LESS HOT.
CLIMATE
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY FOR A WEEK OR MORE, BUT
THE CURRENT 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
ABOVE AVG TEMPS FOR PA, ESP IN THE NW/GREAT LAKES.
THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE SITES BROKE OR TIED THEIR DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY JUNE 23, 2025
ALTOONA: LOW OF 72F BROKE THE RECORD OF 71F SET LAST YEAR.
ALTOONA: HIGH OF 93F BROKE THE RECORD OF 90F SET IN 1994.
BRADFORD: HIGH OF 89F BROKE THE RECORD OF 86F SET IN 2013.
HARRISBURG: HIGH OF 97F TIED THE RECORD SET IN 1965.
STATE COLLEGE: HIGH OF 92F THE BROKE RECORD OF 91F SET IN 1966.
WILLIAMSPORT: HIGH OF 97F THE BROKE RECORD OF 94F SET IN 1923.
TUESDAY JUNE 24, 2025
ALTOONA: LOW OF 70F BROKE THE RECORD OF 68F SET IN 1994.
ALTOONA: HIGH OF 93F BROKE THE RECORD OF 91F SET IN 1966.
BRADFORD: HIGH OF 89F BROKE THE RECORD OF 86F SET IN 2013.
HARRISBURG: LOW OF 78F BROKE THE RECORD OF 75F SET IN 2010.
HARRISBURG: HIGH OF 98F TIED THE RECORD SET IN 1966.
STATE COLLEGE: LOW OF 74F BROKE THE RECORD OF 70F SET IN 1948.
THE FOLLOWING TEMPERATURE RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED
OR BROKEN ON JUNE 25TH:
HARRISBURG: LOW OF 75F IN 1976
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034-035-045-046-049>053-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ034>036-
063>065.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ036-
056-057-059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO/BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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