148
FXUS61 KCTP 260525
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
* NOT QUITE AS HOT TO END THE WEEK, WITH HEAT BEING GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
* IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED LATE
THIS EVENING, AND IT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL BE A MUGGY OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO
THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. FOG IS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING, WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP BY AFTN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HEAT CONCERNS WILL BE REDUCED ON THURSDAY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW
COUNTIES ALONG THE MD BORDER THAT MAY TOUCH THE 100 HEAT INDEX
AND HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THURS NIGHT THAN IT DID
WED NIGHT, AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA. MINS THURS NIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THE
N/E SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA,
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY AFTN/EVE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT HEAT TO MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND LONG RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH A
CHC OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY, WEATHER-WISE, BEFORE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT, WE COULD BE IN FOR A WELCOME SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO USE VCSH MORE,
INSTEAD OF THUNDER. COLD FRONT NEAR PA EARLY TODAY, BUT MAIN
DRIVING FORCE WILL BE LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AS LOW LEVELS HEAT UP EAST OF THE MTNS. ANYWAY,
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NOW WILL DRAPE
ITSELF OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY WHERE IT ENDED
UP RAINING. THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE 100% OF THE AREA, AND MORE
SO IN THE VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY AT MOST
SITES FOR A FEW HRS LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE THURS AM
AFTER JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUN. THERE COULD BE A DECK OF
LOW/IFR CLOUDS INSTEAD OR IN ADDITION TO ANY FOG OVER THE NW.
THE HIGH MOISTURE LINGERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OUR PATTERN. DAILY SHRA/TSRA, AND ANY
COULD MAKE SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...CONTINUED IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY IN THE AFTNS
AND EVES. LESS HOT.
CLIMATE
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY FOR A WEEK OR MORE, BUT
THE CURRENT 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK DOES HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
ABOVE AVG TEMPS FOR PA, ESP IN THE NW/GREAT LAKES.
THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE SITES BROKE OR TIED THEIR DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY JUNE 23, 2025
ALTOONA: LOW OF 72F BROKE THE RECORD OF 71F SET LAST YEAR.
ALTOONA: HIGH OF 93F BROKE THE RECORD OF 90F SET IN 1994.
BRADFORD: HIGH OF 89F BROKE THE RECORD OF 86F SET IN 2013.
HARRISBURG: HIGH OF 97F TIED THE RECORD SET IN 1965.
STATE COLLEGE: HIGH OF 92F THE BROKE RECORD OF 91F SET IN 1966.
WILLIAMSPORT: HIGH OF 97F THE BROKE RECORD OF 94F SET IN 1923.
TUESDAY JUNE 24, 2025
ALTOONA: LOW OF 70F BROKE THE RECORD OF 68F SET IN 1994.
ALTOONA: HIGH OF 93F BROKE THE RECORD OF 91F SET IN 1966.
BRADFORD: HIGH OF 89F BROKE THE RECORD OF 86F SET IN 2013.
HARRISBURG: LOW OF 78F BROKE THE RECORD OF 75F SET IN 2010.
HARRISBURG: HIGH OF 98F TIED THE RECORD SET IN 1966.
STATE COLLEGE: LOW OF 74F BROKE THE RECORD OF 70F SET IN 1948.
THE FOLLOWING TEMPERATURE RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED
OR BROKEN ON JUNE 25TH:
HARRISBURG: LOW OF 75F IN 1976
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ034>036-063>065.
SYNOPSIS...EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...EVANEGO
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN/BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF
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