734
FXUS61 KCTP 261126
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
* NOT QUITE AS HOT TO END THE WEEK, WITH HEAT BEING GRADUALLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
* A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH
THROUGH THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE IT
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM EDT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IT WILL BE A MUGGY EARLY TODAY WITH JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRRUS
DRIFTING SE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA AND TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LOCATIONS NEAR AND JUST TO
THE EAST OF KBFD WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S.
AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING, WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP BY AFTN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE KEY WEATHER FEATURES THIS MORNING COME IN THE FORM OF A
NEARLY EAST/WEST STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PA, WHILE A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE ROUTE 219 CORRIDOR FROM KJST
TO KBFD. THIS LATTER FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT ANYTHING
MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PER THE PAST SEVERAL CAMS RUNS.
IN CONTRAST, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NW TO
THE ENDLESS MTNS OF NEPA WILL CREATE A REGION CONDUCIVE TO
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES AND THE
BEST ENS MEAN, MU CAPE OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF
THE SUSQ VALLEY. WEAK LLVL RIDGING AND QUITE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS OF 8-9C ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS COULD EASILY
LEAD TO A RELATIVE MIN IN CONVECTION, WHILE A BETTER PUSH OF
COOLER MARINE AIR INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES (SE OF I-81) COULD
LEAD TO NOTABLY LOWER CAPE THERE OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
COLLABORATED WITH KBGM, KLWX, KPHI AND WPC REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK SLGT RISK AREA.
THE SURROUNDING WFOS AND CTP ALSO AGREED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
LATER MORNING CAMS RUNS AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THE PLACEMENT OF A
POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH.
HEAT CONCERNS WILL BE REDUCED TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW COUNTIES
ALONG THE MD BORDER THAT MAY TOUCH THE 100 HEAT INDEX AND HAVE A
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EDT THROUGH 7 PM EDT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE ONCE AGAIN (BUT NOT
COMPLETELY VANISH) AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT, CONSIDERING THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING
DRAPED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
MINS EARLY FRI MORNING SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THE N/E
SIDE OF THE FRONT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA,
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTN/EVE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT HEAT TO MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND LONG RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH A
CHC OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY, WEATHER-WISE, BEFORE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT, WE COULD BE IN FOR A WELCOME SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN THING THIS MORNING IS POCKETS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY
HERE AT THE OFFICE. AREAS THAT DID NOT GET MUCH RAIN HAVE
LESS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY
13Z, GIVEN THE STRONG JUNE SUN.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS TO USE VCSH MORE,
INSTEAD OF THUNDER. COLD FRONT NEAR PA EARLY TODAY, BUT MAIN
DRIVING FORCE WILL BE LEE SIDE TROUGH FORMING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AS LOW LEVELS HEAT UP EAST OF THE MTNS. ANYWAY,
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NOW WILL DRAPE
ITSELF OVER THE STATE TONIGHT AND BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OVERNIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, MAINLY WHERE IT ENDED
UP RAINING. THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE 100% OF THE AREA, AND MORE
SO IN THE VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITY AT MOST
SITES FOR A FEW HRS LATE TONIGHT. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE THURS AM
AFTER JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUN. THERE COULD BE A DECK OF
LOW/IFR CLOUDS INSTEAD OR IN ADDITION TO ANY FOG OVER THE NW.
THE HIGH MOISTURE LINGERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OUR PATTERN. DAILY SHRA/TSRA, AND ANY
COULD MAKE SOME HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...CONTINUED IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA, MAINLY IN THE AFTNS
AND EVES. LESS HOT.
CLIMATE
RECORD FOR MDT TODAY IS 100 SET IN 1952, NOT EXPECTING TO
BREAK THAT ONE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-
063>065.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN/BOWEN
CLIMATE...BANGHOFF/MARTIN
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