435
FXUS61 KCTP 270543
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
* DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, BUT MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY.
* BREAKING HEAT GIVES WAY TO DRENCHING DOWNPOURS INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF JUNE; UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES TO START JULY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY FALLING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE EVENING HAS
ENDED, AND ANY REMAINING THREAT FOR FLOODING IS QUICKLY WANING
AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS STALLED OUT IN EASTERN PA,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY FADE INTO LATE TONIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE AN EMERGING SIGNAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. ASIDE FROM THE FOG, FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BEGIN WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
FRIDAY THANKS TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT IN EASTERN PA WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WESTERN HALF OF PA, AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT AGAIN OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT
ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF
THE ALLEGHENY MTNS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE
BEST LIFT.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER VS.
THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST 24HR DELTA OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY. THE FAIRLY ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SIGNAL MAY OFFER
SOME DOWNSIDE RISK TO MAX T PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 70F IN THE ENDLESS MTNS AND NORTHEAST COAL REGION TO THE
80-85F RANGE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LAST WEEKEND/END OF JUNE
WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR DRENCHING DOWNPOURS. AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY, SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS
RETURN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT HEAT TO MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND LONG RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, AND KEEPING POPS LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT, WE COULD BE IN FOR A WELCOME SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
06Z TAFS SENT. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF MDT AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STATE AT THIS HOUR.
UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LOWER CIGS. LAST NIGHT
WAS AREAS OF FOG.
SOME SIGNAL THAT WE MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SUNDAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AS AN EAST WIND DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THE CENTRAL AND EAST
AIRFIELDS TO GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR IN STRATUS
CLOUD AND -DZ DEVELOPING. THIS IS TYPICAL OF AN EARLY SPRINGTIME
SCENARIO. UPSLOPE FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO HELP KJST AND KBFD TO
DROP TO IFR AT TIMES. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUD AND -DZ SET IN,
EXPECT IT TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TIMES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY TO STAY DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOWEN
NEAR TERM...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
LONG TERM...COLBERT/BOWEN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN/TYBURSKI
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