010
FXUS61 KCTP 270829
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
429 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
* ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, BUT MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY.
* BREAKING HEAT GIVES WAY TO DRENCHING DOWNPOURS INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF JUNE; UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES TO START JULY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT THEN HAVE MADE A CURTAIN CALL
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD, THE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A US ROUTE 22 LINE. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
SPECKLE THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 WEST OF ROUTE 322.
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD
AT THIS TIME.
AS THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE WEST TODAY, EXPECT A STRATUS/PATCHY
DRIZZLE SCENARIO EAST OF THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWER AND CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOMERSET AND
CAMBRIA COUNTIES AS THE FRONT BUMPS INTO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
LATEST HRRR PAINTS THE HEAVIEST AFTERNOON QPF SOUTH OF PA BUT
WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCE, CAN NOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR OVER
MY SOUTHWEST. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA HAVE SEEN A
RELATIVE MIN IN PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 72-96 HOURS -
ALLOWING FOR THEIR FF GUIDANCE TO REBOUND. BUT WILL WATCH IF ANY
CONVECTION FORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LAST WEEKEND/END OF
JUNE WITH DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR DRENCHING DOWNPOURS. THE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT RELAXES BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
THE SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT HEAT TO MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AND LONG RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, AND KEEPING POPS LESS
THAN 40 PERCENT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AFTER THAT, WE COULD BE IN FOR A WELCOME SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
06Z TAFS SENT. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF MDT AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY STATE AT THIS HOUR.
UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LOWER CIGS. LAST NIGHT
WAS AREAS OF FOG.
SOME SIGNAL THAT WE MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SUNDAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AS AN EAST WIND DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THE CENTRAL AND EAST
AIRFIELDS TO GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR AND THEN IFR IN STRATUS
CLOUD AND -DZ DEVELOPING. THIS IS TYPICAL OF AN EARLY SPRINGTIME
SCENARIO. UPSLOPE FROM THE EAST WILL ALSO HELP KJST AND KBFD TO
DROP TO IFR AT TIMES. ONCE THE LOWER CLOUD AND -DZ SET IN,
EXPECT IT TO LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TIMES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY TO STAY DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOWEN
NEAR TERM...TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...BOWEN/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...COLBERT/BOWEN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN/TYBURSKI
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