727
FXUS61 KCTP 271822
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
* ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, BUT MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED
THURSDAY.
* BREAKING HEAT GIVES WAY TO DRENCHING DOWNPOURS INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF JUNE; UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES TO START JULY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT THEN HAVE MADE A CURTAIN CALL
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES WEST ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD, THE SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A US ROUTE 22 LINE. EXPECT THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
SPECKLE THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 WEST OF ROUTE 322.
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT IT IS NOT WIDESPREAD
AT THIS TIME.
AS THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MOVE WEST TODAY, EXPECT A STRATUS/PATCHY
DRIZZLE SCENARIO EAST OF THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
SHOWER AND CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOMERSET AND
CAMBRIA COUNTIES AS THE FRONT BUMPS INTO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
LATEST HRRR PAINTS THE HEAVIEST AFTERNOON QPF SOUTH OF PA BUT
WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCE, CAN NOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR OVER
MY SOUTHWEST. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AS SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA HAVE SEEN A
RELATIVE MIN IN PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 72-96 HOURS -
ALLOWING FOR THEIR FF GUIDANCE TO REBOUND. BUT WILL WATCH IF ANY
CONVECTION FORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR ALONG THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA FADES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT,
BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED DOWNWIND OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
WITH POCKETS OF RIDGETOP FOG/MIST/DRIZZLE. CLOUDY AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE WITH
LOWS IN THE 60-70F RANGE OR +5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGES AND EASTERN VALLEYS. CLOUD BREAKS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT BL HEATING WITH SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE
TO SBCAPE VALUES >2000 J/KG WITH FCST MAX TEMPS 85-90F OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PRE FRONTAL/LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME MIXED
SIGNALS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS <30KT. THAT SAID, THE STRONG SFC EATING AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HELD
THE D2 RISK LEVEL AT 1 OUT OF 5 (MRGL) WITH THE 1730UTC UPDATE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CPA BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES A
DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FOGGY START TO THE LAST SUNDAY IN JUNE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STORMY PATTERN RESUMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A QSTNRY/WARM AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, THE
SIGNAL IS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR RAINFALL LEADING UP TO THE 4TH OF
JULY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL KEEP LOW POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MADE A FEW CHANGES HERE AT THE LAST MINUTE. MAIN THING WAS TO
EDGE OFF A BIT ON THE REAL LOW CIGS ETC A BIT HERE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS LOWER CIGS. LAST
NIGHT WAS AREAS OF FOG.
SOME SIGNAL THAT WE MAY GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY SUNDAY.
SOME SHOWERS NEAR JST THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH LIMITED HEATING TODAY, THE CHC
FOR STORMS WILL BE LOWER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TIMES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY TO STAY DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...BOWEN
NEAR TERM...TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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