596
FXUS61 KCTP 272315
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
715 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY/SOUTHERN POCONOS.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, SUNNY, AND WARMER BEFORE THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND THE START
OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A WIDESPREAD AND THICK STRATUS DECK WITHIN A COOL AIR DAMMING
REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THERE REMAINS A LINE OF CONVECTION JUST ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF OUR CWA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
CAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES BY 00Z WHERE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 04Z. PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO TO BE NEAR 2
INCHES, AND THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WHERE WE COULD
SEE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR.
THE CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR ALONG THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FADES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY.
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT,
BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED DOWNWIND OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
WITH POCKETS OF RIDGETOP FOG/MIST/DRIZZLE. CLOUDY AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60-70F RANGE OR +5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGES AND EASTERN VALLEYS.
CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT BL HEATING WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE TO SBCAPE VALUES >2000 J/KG WITH FCST MAX
TEMPS 85-90F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PRE
FRONTAL/LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SOME MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS <30KT. THAT SAID, THE STRONG
SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPC HELD THE D2 RISK LEVEL AT 1 OUT OF 5 (MRGL)
WITH THE 1730UTC UPDATE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CPA BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES A
DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CLEARING SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD RESULT IN A FOGGY START TO THE LAST SUNDAY IN JUNE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF SUNSHINE, DRYING CONDITION, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE LOW 90S NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL PA ALONG
THE MASON DIXON LINE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE STORMY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN RESUMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A
QUASI STATIONARY/WARM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, THE SIGNAL IS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR RAINFALL
LEADING UP TO THE 4TH OF JULY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
FRONT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE PRECIPITATION FOR THE 4TH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND AND GETS REPLACED BY BUILDING REGION OVER THE CENTRAL
US. TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE PROGGED TO BE
JUST ABOVE TO NEAR CLIMO.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CIGS (800-1500 FT AGL) WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET
TONIGHT - INTO THE LIFR RANGE. VSBYS WILL STAY MVFR OR BETTER
FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AIRFIELDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH IFR/MVFR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE REACHING VFR AT MOST OR ALL AIRFIELDS BY
14-15Z SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/GUSTY TSRA SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS MUCH OR
ALL OF PA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TIMES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING LIKE THE BEST DAY TO STAY DRY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...BOWEN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
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