392
FXUS61 KCTP 280813
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
413 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNRISE BEFORE DIMINISHING.
* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
* SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, SUNNY, AND WARMER BEFORE THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND THE START
OF JULY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A THICK STRATUS DECK WITHIN THE LAST HOLD OF A COOL AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE RIDGE LINE TO THE WEST
OF STATE COLLEGE OVERNIGHT AND TRACKED EAST NORTHEAST BEFORE
DISSIPATING TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO POP
UP IN A SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD CALM AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SPC CONTINUES THE MRGL THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CPA BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES A
DRY PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY CLEARING TONIGHT COULD
RESULT IN A FOGGY START TO THE DAY TOMORROW. SUNDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN OF SUNSHINE, DRYING CONDITIONS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
ONCE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COMMONWEALTH
TO THE LOW 90S NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL PA ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE STORMY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN RESUMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A
QUASI STATIONARY/WARM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW, THE SIGNAL IS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR RAINFALL
LEADING UP TO THE 4TH OF JULY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
FRONT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE PRECIPITATION FOR THE 4TH WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF NEW
ENGLAND AND GETS REPLACED BY BUILDING REGION OVER THE CENTRAL
US. TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE PROGGED TO BE
JUST ABOVE TO NEAR CLIMO.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
06Z TAFS SENT.
AS NOTED BELOW, LINE OF STORMS HAS WEAKEN. THE AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL PA IS MUCH COOLER, AND THE FRONT IS MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT ANYWAY. STILL EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIVEN SOME HEATING AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD JST WILL DIE OFF AS IT GETS THERE
THANKS TO THE LLVL COOL, STABLE AIR COVERING 95% OF CENTRAL PA.
PATCHY --SHRA ELSEWHERE WILL TURN TO OCNL -DZ AS THE WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ALL NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH IFR TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE REACHING VFR AT MOST OR ALL AIRFIELDS BY 14-16Z
SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/GUSTY TSRA SHOULD MOVE SE
ACROSS MUCH OR ALL OF PA SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TSRA MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL A
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF BFD, THEREFORE, WE'VE LEFT MENTION OF
TSRA OUT IN FAVOR OF AM -SHRA THERE.
A GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES SAT AFTN AND
CROSS PA IN THE EVENING AND SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED CLEARING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG SAT NIGHT AND SUN AM.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM FOG THEN VFR.
MON-TUE...SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH TIMES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.
WED...AM FOG THEN VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BOWEN
NEAR TERM...TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN
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