644
FXUS61 KCTP 290103
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
903 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
* THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF CPA TONIGHT.
* SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND RAIN-FREE/DRY CONDITIONS
* STORMY PATTERN RESUMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RENEWED RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A FEW STAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE CWA,
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING HAS MOSTLY
ENDED FOR THE EVENING. LOW STATUS AND BILLOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA KEPT THE AIRMASS MOSTLY STABLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS PREVENTING THE LINE OF STORMS THAT
CAME THROUGH FROM BEING TOO UNRULY. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY BROKE UP, ALLOWING FOR SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND
A FEW STORMS TO KICK UP IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, BUT
INSTABILITY WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT
AREA SAW DIRECT SUNLIGHT.
THE REMAINING CONVECTION OVER CPA WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, AND RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE GROUND AND
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF THE MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REACH NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CPA BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDES A
DRY PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF
SUNSHINE, DRYING CONDITIONS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOW
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COMMONWEALTH TO THE LOW 90S
NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL PA ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.
THE STORMY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN RESUMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SENDING A
QUASI STATIONARY/WARM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT
COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE
THE INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR NOW, THE SIGNAL IS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR RAINFALL LEADING UP
TO THE 4TH OF JULY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. WHETHER OR
NOT WE SEE PRECIPITATION FOR THE 4TH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND GETS
REPLACED BY BUILDING REGION OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE PROGGED TO BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR
CLIMO.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ROUTE 22 CORRIDOR. A LOCALIZED DOWNPOUR REMAINS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THIS ACTIVITY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. I HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER
AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
SUGGESTING, BASED ON FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND
WET GROUND FROM EARLIER RAINFALL.
AFTER ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT, EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS FOR SUNDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
ACCOMPANYING STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...AM FOG, THEN VFR.
MON-TUE...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED, WITH PERIODS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
WED...AM FOG, THEN VFR.
THU...PRIMARILY VFR, ALTHOUGH A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN/TYBURSKI
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
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