531
FXUS61 KCTP 291540
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* RAIN-FREE END OF THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE FOR MOST WITH A
STRAY SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA
* STORMY PATTERN RESUMES MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH A RENEWED RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
* DRIER/LESS HUMID AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE NICE WEATHER ON THE 4TH
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
DEWPOINT/AIRMASS BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-80 AT 15Z (58F TD AT
BFD) WITH QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF CPA. THIS IS WHERE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR T-STORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY; HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. MAX
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK TO REACH THE 80-90F RANGE FROM THE
NORTHERN TIER ELEVATIONS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL VALLEYS. MAX HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REACH THE 90-95F RANGE OVER THE LSV TO THE MD
LINE.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE WIDESPREAD STORMY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN RESUMES MONDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, PUTTING THE COMMONWEALTH BACK IN THE
WARM SECTOR AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO BEGIN THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF
DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE
RETURN AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, A (SLIGHTLY) COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK (WED-FRI) SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST AND WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN
CUMULUS OVER THE SOUTHERN 3/4 OF CPA AIRSPACE. VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY
PARTICULARLY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...PM SHOWERS & T-STORMS LIKELY; AREAS OF FOG & LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
WED...AM FOG, THEN VFR.
THU...PRIMARILY VFR; STRAY PM SHOWER/T-STORM POSSIBLE.
FRI...AM FOG POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/BOWEN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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