285
FXUS61 KCTP 051711
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HAZE AND FOG BEING REPORTED AT A FEW SITES, BUT CAN'T TELL IF
IT'S REAL FOG DUE TO PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE IR
SIGNATURES CONSISTENT WITH VALLEY FOG. IT COULD BE THE
HAZE/SMOKE FROM THE FIRES. BFD, OYM AND FIG ARE ALL DOWN INTO
THE 50S AND NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS. WILL CONTINUE TO CALL IT HAZE
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF REPORTS OF HAZE (AND
NOT SMOKE). INTERESTING CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE NE/ENDLESS
MOUNTAINS. STABILITY DROPS THRU THE DAY, BUT THE EARLY CIN AND
CLOUD COVER (AND HAZE/SMOKE) POTENTIALLY KEEPING TEMPS COOLER
THAN NBM FORECAST ARGUE AGAINST MORE THAN A 20 POP AND KIPT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARGUE AGAINST MENTIONING TS. AGAIN, THE BUST
POTENTIAL TODAY IS GOING TOO HIGH ON THE MAXES WHEN CONSIDERING
THE CLOUDS AND SKY OBSCURATION. HREF AND OPER NAM DO INCLUDE
SOME QPF OVER THE NE, SO WE'VE ADDED SOME 20 POPS THERE AFTER
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SORTOF A COLD AIR DAMMING SET UP. BUT, NOT COLD. BIG 1030+MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA MAKING MAINLY DRY WX. LLVL AGEO
WIND FROM THE N/NE. TONIGHT PERIOD LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT
WITH MIN TEMPS JUST A HAIR MILDER: 55 TO 65F THANKS TO A LITTLE
THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESP THE SE. SIMILAR
TO TUES, THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS ON WED MAY BE A SHADE TOO WARM
IF THE CLOUDS ARE ANY THICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. LITTLE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS ON RH ALOFT GIVES LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST. HAVE PLAYED THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY (MID RANGE PERCENTAGES) FOR SKY COVER. JUST ONE OR TWO
SHRA MAY AGAIN POP UP WED AFTN, AND OVER A BIT WIDER OF AN AREA,
WITH CI ON THE HILLTOPS FIRST. HOWEVER, THE STABILITY AND CAPE
ARE QUESTIONABLE WHEN EXAMINING THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL
KEEP POPS SUB- MENTIONABLE AT THIS POINT FOR WED AFTN. BUT,
COULD SEE LATER SHIFTS ADDING A 20 POP HERE AND THERE. EXPECT
SIMILAR TEMPS BUT MAYBE LESS SKY COVER WED NIGHT. SO, MAYBE A
GREATER CHC OF VALLEY FOG THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BIG SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE NE U.S. AND CANADA WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE AS THE CENTER DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BUT, IT
WILL STILL BE NOSING INTO PA. THUS, POPS STILL NEARLY NIL FOR US
UNTIL MID-LATE WEEKEND. EVEN THEN, THE CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER
DISORGANIZED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. BUT
THAT WON'T BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE LONG TERM (MID NEXT WEEK).
TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY, SLOWLY GETTING WARMER, AND HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO RISE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SOME HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE U90S SHOW UP.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOOKING AT SOME CU, MID CLDS, HIGH CLDS, AND HAZE AND SMOKE
AT TIMES THIS AFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WITH AND VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AFTER TODAY.
SOME SMOKE AND HZ MAY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN AFTER DARK,
WEIGHTED FCST TO A MIX OF GUIDANCE, EXPERIENCE, AND WHAT
WE HAD LAST NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, VFR CONTINUES.
CLIMATE
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED IN BRADFORD ON
AUGUST 2ND, WHICH TIED THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET BACK IN 1985.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED IN ALTOONA ON
AUGUST 3RD, WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 48 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1959.
EQUIPMENT
RADAR NOT TRANSMITTING DATA EARLIER THIS MORNING, STILL DOWN,
AS STAFF LOOK AT THE ISSUE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-012-
018-019-026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...NPB
EQUIPMENT...MARTIN
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