548
FXUS61 KCTP 051748
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
148 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF
CENTRAL PA, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SKY LOOKING
QUITE HAZY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
CONCENTRATION IS STILL ELEVATED AND VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE 3 TO 6 MILE RANGE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE. THE HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT
SIMILAR SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT VISIBILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
WHILE ALMOST ALL OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON,
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PENNSYLVANIA AND COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW TERRAIN INDUCED SHOWERS
TO POP UP.
ANY SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING AND WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, BUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY. SOME CAMS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH
MUCAPE LESS THAN 300 J/KG AND SOME CIN PRESENT. WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS POINT FOR WED AFTN. EXPECT SIMILAR
TEMPS TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT MAYBE LESS
SKY COVER. SO, MAYBE A GREATER CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG THAN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BIG SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE NE U.S. AND CANADA WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE AS THE CENTER DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THAT
BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LARGELY KEEPING US DRY OUTSIDE OF
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP UP EACH
AFTERNOON. THUS, POPS STILL NEARLY NIL FOR US UNTIL MID-LATE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES LIKELY DON'T
INCREASE TOO SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOOKING AT SOME CU, MID CLDS, HIGH CLDS, AND HAZE AND SMOKE
AT TIMES THIS AFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WITH AND VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AFTER TODAY.
SOME SMOKE AND HZ MAY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN AFTER DARK,
WEIGHTED FCST TO A MIX OF GUIDANCE, EXPERIENCE, AND WHAT
WE HAD LAST NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, VFR CONTINUES.
CLIMATE
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED IN BRADFORD ON
AUGUST 2ND, WHICH TIED THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET BACK IN 1985.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED IN ALTOONA ON
AUGUST 3RD, WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 48 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1959.
EQUIPMENT
RADAR NOT TRANSMITTING DATA EARLIER THIS MORNING, STILL DOWN,
AS STAFF LOOK AT THE ISSUE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ006-012-
018-019-026>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...BAUCO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/BAUCO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BAUCO
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...NPB
EQUIPMENT...MARTIN
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