002
FXUS61 KCTP 061350
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
950 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO PA FROM QUEBEC CANADA WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
HAZY SKIES AND SOME AIR QUALITY CONCERNS TODAY AS THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT STAYS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
LIGHT SHRA OVER NW PA IS MAKING TO THE GROUND AT BFD. ADDED 20
POPS TO THERE FOR THE AM AND BUMPED UP THE POPS OVER THE NE/E
FOR LATER TODAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. EXPANDED MENTIONS OF
HAZE TO THE SW AS WELL DUE TO CURRENT SKY CONDITION LOCALLY AND
HRRR VERT INTEG SMOKE PROGS.
PREV...
THE PRIMARY, MORE DENSE PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED JUST A BIT MORE TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING (THANKS
TO WEAK TROUGH LIFTING NE THROUGH PA WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA) WITH THE
TARGET AREA FOR GREATEST IMPACT THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA, THROUGH FAR NE PA, SOUTHERN
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST 06/06Z HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT
SIMILAR SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF PA, IMPACTING OUR NORTHCENTRAL
ZONES AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
THE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED ANOTHER
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR TODAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FINE
PARTICULATE MATTER FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WILDFIRE SMOKE AND
LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING. SMOKE COULD CONTINUE TO BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.
PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS (MAINLY AOA 10,000 FT AGL) WERE DRIFTING
SLOWLY NNE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS
NW PA AND THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY - BASED ON LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES
VIA MRMS RADAR.
TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
FOR TODAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS,
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (WITH SOME SCATTERED
PANCAKE FLAT CU THIS AFTERNOON) AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE.
ONCE AGAIN, A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TODAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE A FEW DEG BELOW
EARLY AUGUST NORMALS AT MOST LOCATIONS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
THE BULK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY,
GIVING WAY TO CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE.
AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S - A
DOWNWARD TREND OF 2 TO 5 DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE SUNSHINE THURSDAY WITHIN THE SAME OVERALL AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG F RELATIVE TO
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
BIG SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE NE U.S. AND CANADA WILL WEAKEN A
LITTLE AS THE CENTER DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THAT
BEING SAID, IT WILL STILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LARGELY KEEPING US DRY OUTSIDE OF
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP UP EACH
AFTERNOON. THUS, POPS STILL NEARLY NIL FOR US UNTIL MID-LATE
WEEKEND. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES LIKELY DON'T
INCREASE TOO SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH THE PERSISTENT PATTERN, WILDFIRE SMOKE LIKELY
HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, THOUGH HOPEFULLY THE
THICKNESS AND ASSOCIATED HEALTH IMPACTS TRENDS DOWNWARD WITH
TIME.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID MORNING UPDATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO BFD FOR A BRIEF TIME. HAZE AND FOG IN
MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT AT LNS, AS WINDS KICK
UP THERE. TAFS UPDATED FOR THESE FACTORS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO KEEP
VISIBILITIES INTO THE 6-9SM RANGE THIS MORNING. FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT WAS MOSTLY LIMITED DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER, AND
ANY FOG THAT HAS FORMED SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SUN
RISES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WILL BE WILL BE IPT AND BFD, WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STUCK
AT 6SM OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HAZE FROM SMOKE.
TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN TIER
AFFECTING BFD, BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS.
HAZY SKIES WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE/HAZE; ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONTINUES.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCCX RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A MALFUNCTIONING PART. THE PART IS
ON ORDER AND WILL BE INSTALLED UPON DELIVERY. ELECTRONIC
TECHNICIANS HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR UP AND RUNNING AGAIN BY
THURSDAY 8/7 AT THE LATEST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-049>053-058.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/BAUCO
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/MARTIN/BOWEN
EQUIPMENT...BANGHOFF/MARTIN
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