452
FXUS61 KCTP 061837
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO PA FROM QUEBEC CANADA WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
HAZY SKIES AND SOME AIR QUALITY CONCERNS TODAY AND PERHAPS
THURS.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SMALL SHRA POPPING OVER FAR SE PA MAY BE OFF OF THE BAY BREEZE.
THERE ARE MORE THAN ONE OF THEM, SO WE'LL ADD IN A CHC OF SHRA
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NAM AND COUSINS DO GENERATE A FEW
MORE SHRA ALONG/S OF THE TURNPIKE FOR TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS
POSSIBLE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 7H RIDGING UNDER THE RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JETLET AT 3H. PATCHY SHRA ALSO FALLING OVER
THE NW MTNS. BUT, FORCING FOR THIS SEEMS LIKE IT SHIFTS TO THE
NE LATER IN THE DAY, AND WE WILL ALLOW MENTIONS TO DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING SHOULD COME TO MUCH OF THE WRN THIRD OF
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THAT WOULD BE GOOD FOR RADIATIONAL FOG
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NW WHERE TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE M50S
AGAIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY RETURN TO THE LAURELS LATER TONIGHT
WITH ANY OF THE SHRA THAT COULD MOVE E-W ALONG OUR SRN COUNTIES.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE MENTIONS OF HZ IN THE FORECAST
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA (MAINLY NE) TONIGHT DUE TO LATEST
HRRR-SMOKE OUTPUT WHICH LOOKS HIGHLY SIMILAR TO CONCENTRATIONS
AND PLACEMENT OF SUCH AS THEY ARE TODAY. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THAT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER AQA FROM THE DEP COME OUT LATER THIS
AFTN (WED) FOR THURS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
WHAT YOU SEE IT WHAT YOU GET. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE
WX FROM WED TO THURS OUTSIDE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER (THAT IS,
MORE SUN ON THURS). HZ/SMOKE HANGS OUT PARTICULARLY (PUN) OVER
THE NE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY. AS WITH
TODAY, THERE ARE HINTS FROM MODELS THAT SOME TINY/ISOLATED SHRA
COULD POP UP IN THE DAYTIME HEATING. BUT, THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND WHERE WILL ALLOW US TO KEEP THE FCST DRY AT
THIS POINT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXTREMELY STABLE/HIGH-CONTINUITY FORECAST IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LONG TERM. THE BIG SFC HIGH NOSING INTO PA FROM THE NE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TO ALLOW A MORE-SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RAISE OUR
HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT SHOULD BE
PRESSING UPON US FROM THE NW LATE IN THE PERIOD. SO, HIGHER CHC
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THEN. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH
COULD FORM OFF THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO BE MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL
IN NATURE ACCORDING TO NHC. IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT PA AT ALL UNDER
THE PROTECTION OF OUR PERSISTENT RIDGING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOOKING AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS, HAZE, AND SMOKE IN SPOTS, WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...BFD HAD A
SHOWER EARLIER.
WEIGHTED THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE TO GUIDANCE, EXPERIENCE, AND
TRENDS LAST NIGHT INTO THE CURRENT HOUR. WOULD EXPECT THE
VISIBILITIES TO DROP LATE TONIGHT AGAIN, GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A
LACK OF MIXING.
FOR THURSDAY, WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO WHAT TODAY
IS LIKE, BUT PERHAPS A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AT BAY FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE/HAZE; ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, VFR
CONTINUES.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCCX RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A MALFUNCTIONING PART. THE PART IS
ON ORDER AND WILL BE INSTALLED UPON DELIVERY. ELECTRONIC
TECHNICIANS HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR UP AND RUNNING AGAIN BY
LATE THURSDAY (8/7/25).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ037-041-
042-046-049>053-058.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
EQUIPMENT...BANGHOFF/MARTIN
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