986
FXUS61 KCTP 070815
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
415 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO PA FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AND QUEBEC CANADA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM TO
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
AND SCT-BKN, MAINLY MID LEVEL, SHALLOW ALTOCU CLOUDS.
AREAS OF STRATUS WERE NOTED ON THE RIDGES OF CENTRAL PA AND THE
ALLEGHENIES WHILE SOME AREAS OF FOG WERE FORMING IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA CONTAINING RIVERS/LARGE STREAMS.
PROBABILITY FOR CAPE REACHING OVER 500 J/KG IS NIL TODAY GIVEN
DEEP DRY AIR ON THE REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN FACT, THE
LATEST HREF'S MU CAPE IS LESS THAN 250 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BASED ON THESE FACTORS, HAVE PEGGED POPS AT ZERO
TODAY
LIGHT HAZE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE THICKER SMOKE PLUME ALOFT HAS SHIFTED
NORTH INTO UPSTATE NY.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VARY FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MTNS, WITH LOW 80S IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SENSIBLE WX TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
COMFORTABLE/COOL OVERNIGHT, AND SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS
AND LOW TO MODERATE HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 DEG F AND HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY (THURSDAY)
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXTREMELY STABLE/HIGH-CONTINUITY FORECAST IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LONG TERM. THE BIG SFC HIGH NOSING INTO PA FROM THE NE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TO ALLOW A MORE-SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RAISE OUR
HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT SHOULD BE
PRESSING UPON US FROM THE NW LATE IN THE PERIOD. SO, HIGHER CHC
POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THEN. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH
COULD FORM OFF THE NC COAST IS LIKELY TO BE MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL
IN NATURE ACCORDING TO NHC. IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT PA AT ALL UNDER
THE PROTECTION OF OUR PERSISTENT RIDGING.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND FROM 090-160 DEGREES WILL
RESULT IN MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TODAY. REDUCED VIS
WILL BE A COMBINATION OF FOG/MIST/HAZE/SMOKE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THEN HAZE/SMOKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A
COUPLE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BUT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT VFR WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY) FLIGHT CATEGORY.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCCX RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A MALFUNCTIONING PART. THE PART IS
ON ORDER AND WILL BE INSTALLED UPON DELIVERY. ELECTRONIC
TECHNICIANS HOPE TO HAVE THE RADAR UP AND RUNNING LATER TODAY
(8/7/25).
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
EQUIPMENT...BANGHOFF/MARTIN
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