849
FXUS61 KCTP 071812
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWEST INTO PA FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AND QUEBEC CANADA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM
TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE GONE AND CU STARTING TO COVER THE CWA, BUT
THEY ARE FLAT AND NOT THREATENING TO RAIN. A FEW COULD GET TALL
ENOUGH TO SPRINKLE ON SOMEONE ALONG AND S OF THE TURNPIKE
THROUGH SUNSET. A LITTLE HAZY, STILL, OVER THE CWA, BUT THE
SMOKE LAYER IS THINNING OVERHEAD. THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-
FREE. EXPECT A MINOR SURGE OF CLOUDS INTO THE LAURELS FROM THE S
BEFORE MORNING. THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE TOTAL THERE. THE REST
OF THE CWA SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A PATCH OR TWO OF
CLOUDS. FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, AND SOME
PATCHES MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE S & E BUT THOSE AREAS ARE LOWER
PROBABILITY. MINS OF 55 TO 60F ARE GOING TO BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WX. IT SHOULD BE
EVEN DRIER (ALOFT) WITH LESS CLOUDS ON FRI AND SAT THAN THURS.
MAXES WILL MAYBE BE A DEG MILDER ON FRI AND 2-4F ON TOP OF THAT
FOR SAT. MINS OF 55 TO 60F SHOULD STILL WORK OUT JUST FINE FOR
FRI NIGHT. FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE N, BUT THE TEMP/DEW
SPREAD MAY BE A LITTLE WIDER, SO IT'S NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG TO
FORM, BUT PROBABLE (70% CHC).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONTINUITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CONTINUE. THE SFC HIGH
DOES START TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE (OR GET NUDGED) EASTWARD LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SFC LOW (MOST LIKELY
EXTRATROPICAL) WILL BE MUDDYING THE WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS LOW OFF THE COAST FILLS
SOME AND SLIPS NORTHWARD SOME, WE'LL BASICALLY HAVE A BERMUDA
HIGH MAKING IT'S USUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR PA UNDER A BIG RIDGE
ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SHOULD BE A HOT PATTERN.
A LITTLE CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK IS THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT IS THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS JUST N
OF PA AS A COLD FRONT OR TWO (AND/OR MCSS) TRY TO KNOCK DOWN
THE BIG RIDGE. BUT, THIS PATTERN IS STILL A VERY GOOD BET FOR
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TUES-THURS (AND
PERHAPS BEYOND). SOME L90S ARE EXPECTED FOR MAXES, AND DAILY 30
POPS (FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION) ARE A FIXTURE FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
18Z TAFS SENT.
WHILE THE CLOUDS AND HZ HAS EASED OFF, WEIGHTED FCST FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO MORE LOWER CLOUDS AND HAZE AND
FOG, GIVEN NO REAL GOOD WAY TO MIX THE AIRMASS, OR MUCH OF A
GRADIENT FOR MUCH WIND.
STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ON THURSDAY, ONCE SUN IS UP.
NO REAL CHANGE BEFORE NEXT TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.
AS FRONT NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY, MORE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIND FROM 090-160 DEGREES WILL
RESULT IN MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS/VISIBILITY TODAY. REDUCED VIS
WILL BE A COMBINATION OF FOG/MIST/HAZE/SMOKE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
THEN HAZE/SMOKE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A
COUPLE OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BUT COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT VFR WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY) FLIGHT CATEGORY.
TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EQUIPMENT
RADAR BACK UP AS OF 125 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TECHS ARE STILL WORKING AT THE RADAR. IT HAS BEEN RUNNING FOR
MUCH OF THE PAST HOUR (16-17Z), MOST LIKELY BEING PUT THROUGH
IT'S PACES BEFORE A FULL RETURN TO SERVICE. SHOULDN'T BE MUCH
LONGER.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
EQUIPMENT...DANGELO/MARTIN
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