101
FXUS61 KCTP 080835
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
435 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN A
GROWING NUMBER OF DRY, WARM DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM TO
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AREAS OF UPSLOPE STRATUS WERE PRESENT AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
(SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING) ALONG WITH PATCHY 1/2-1SM FOG IN
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA, WHERE TEMPS WERE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A T/TD SPREAD OF 0-2 DEG F.
AFTER 13Z, QUITE A SPECTACULAR EARLY AUGUST DAY IS ON TAP TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP DRY AIR WITH ONLY THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME PATCHY CIRRUS AND FEW-SCT COVERAGE OF FLAT, HIGH-BASED CU
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HRRR NEAR SFC AND VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE PANELS STILL
INDICATE ENOUGH SMOKE PARTICLE DENSITY TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
HAZE OF 7-10SM THROUGH TODAY WITHIN MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE 2-4 DEG F
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F EQUATING TO PWAT VALUES OF 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR, COOL NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S (WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S FOUND IN THE PERENNIAL
COLD VALLEYS OF POTTER AND MCKEAN COUNTIES), HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR LOCAL WX.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERE, SO VERY
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE JUST A TAD (1-2 DEG F) WARMER THAN
TODAY (FRIDAY).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONTINUITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CONTINUE. THE SFC HIGH
DOES START TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE (OR GET NUDGED) EASTWARD LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SFC LOW (MOST LIKELY
EXTRATROPICAL) WILL BE MUDDYING THE WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. ONCE THIS LOW OFF THE COAST FILLS
SOME AND SLIPS NORTHWARD SOME, WE'LL BASICALLY HAVE A BERMUDA
HIGH MAKING IT'S USUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR PA UNDER A BIG RIDGE
ALOFT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SHOULD BE A HOT PATTERN.
A LITTLE CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK IS THAT THE
FLOW ALOFT IS THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS JUST N
OF PA AS A COLD FRONT OR TWO (AND/OR MCSS) TRY TO KNOCK DOWN
THE BIG RIDGE. BUT, THIS PATTERN IS STILL A VERY GOOD BET FOR
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TUES-THURS (AND
PERHAPS BEYOND). SOME L90S ARE EXPECTED FOR MAXES, AND DAILY 30
POPS (FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION) ARE A FIXTURE FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE AVIATION FORECAST EARLY THIS AM. A
FEW SITES DIPPING TO 5SM IN BR/HZ SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS THINKING OF MVFR IN ALL LOCATIONS FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KJST AND KBFD,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (75%) OF A DROP TO IFR IN FG/BR.
EXPECT A RETURN TO GOOD VFR AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT VFR WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY) FLIGHT CATEGORY.
TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...GARTNER/TYBURSKI
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