786
FXUS61 KCTP 082243
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN A
NUMBER OF DRY, WARM DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM TO
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHALLOW CU OVER THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS ARE LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM THE MORNING STRATUS. IT CERTAINLY ISN'T FROM THE
CRISPY, BROWN GRASS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN HAPPY VALLEY. THE
GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS AND DEEP-ISH MIXING COULD DISSIPATE/MIX
OUT SOME OF THE CU. BUT, IT IS MORE LIKELY WE WILL HAVE THE
CURRENT COVERAGE HANG AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SUNSET
SHOULD ALLOW FOR (NEARLY) COMPLETE CLEARING SAVE FOR THE HIGH
CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. HOWEVER, AS WITH THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS, SOME BROKEN STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN MTNS HELPED
BY THE SE FLOW. MINS SHOULD TOUCH THE 50S ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT THAT EFFICIENT AT STIFLING FOG, SO, THE
MENTION OF VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RETAINED, AND EXPANDED TO THE N.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE CLOUDS AGAIN ON SAT. THE MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BURN OFF, LEAVING EVEN LESS CU THAN FRI. JUST PATCHY
CIRRUS WILL BE OVERHEAD. SO, SOLAR POWER WILL BOOST TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGS HIGHER THAN FRI. A FEW M80S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WE'LL MAINLY SEE L80S ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS GOING TO OCCUR WITH
THIS PACKAGE. PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITHOUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOTS OF ENERGY FROM THE WEST, WE
WILL HANG OUR HAT ON THE GENERALIZED 30-40 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE-
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTNS AND EVES. OVERALL, POPS FROM NBM ARE MAXIMIZED
ON WED AFTN/EVE WHEN A FRONT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND
IT DROP IN FROM THE N. THE FIRST CHC FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WOULD BE TUES AFTN IN THE W, WITH THE E LIKELY REMAINING
DRY (<=20 POP) FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH 90S BECOMING POSSIBLE STARTING ON WED. BUT, THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE NUDGED A DEG OR TWO OFF THE
NBM MAXES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S AND L70S. SO, A STRAY 100F
HEAT INDEX IS POSSIBLE (50%) OVER THE SE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
AND COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, STILL SOME CHANCE OF FOG JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, BUT LESS CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS BASED ON SEVERAL
FACTORS, LESS SMOKE AND HZ LEFT NOW THAN IN RECENT DAYS, AND
DEWPTS LOWER AS WELL. WITH LOWER DEWPTS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AT THE CROSS OVER RANGE FOR AS LONG A TIME.
OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY, AND
WITH DEWPTS FCST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S, NOT SEEING MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS. JUST A BRIEF PERIOD EACH DAY OF
FOG AROUND SUNRISE, GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT VFR WILL MOST
LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY) FLIGHT CATEGORY.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
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