919
FXUS61 KCTP 090543
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN A
NUMBER OF DRY, WARM DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR RELATIVELY
COMFORTABLE NIGHTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM TO
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF NICELY. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
STEADY OR EVEN GOING DOWN A BIT.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
SUNSET SHOULD ALLOW FOR (NEARLY) COMPLETE CLEARING SAVE FOR THE
HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. HOWEVER, AS WITH THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS, SOME BROKEN STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN MTNS
HELPED BY THE SE FLOW. MINS SHOULD TOUCH THE 50S ALMOST
EVERYWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT THAT EFFICIENT AT STIFLING FOG,
SO, THE MENTION OF VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN RETAINED, AND EXPANDED TO
THE N.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE CLOUDS AGAIN ON SAT. THE MORNING STRATUS
SHOULD BURN OFF, LEAVING EVEN LESS CU THAN FRI. JUST PATCHY
CIRRUS WILL BE OVERHEAD. SO, SOLAR POWER WILL BOOST TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGS HIGHER THAN FRI. A FEW M80S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WE'LL MAINLY SEE L80S ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS GOING TO OCCUR WITH
THIS PACKAGE. PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITHOUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOTS OF ENERGY FROM THE WEST, WE
WILL HANG OUR HAT ON THE GENERALIZED 30-40 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE-
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTNS AND EVES. OVERALL, POPS FROM NBM ARE MAXIMIZED
ON WED AFTN/EVE WHEN A FRONT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND
IT DROP IN FROM THE N. THE FIRST CHC FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WOULD BE TUES AFTN IN THE W, WITH THE E LIKELY REMAINING
DRY (<=20 POP) FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH 90S BECOMING POSSIBLE STARTING ON WED. BUT, THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE NUDGED A DEG OR TWO OFF THE
NBM MAXES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S AND L70S. SO, A STRAY 100F
HEAT INDEX IS POSSIBLE (50%) OVER THE SE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
AND COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP ANY RETRICTIONS
TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE MVFR RANGE IN VSBY. AFTER SUNRISE, CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD VFR DAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
VFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)
FLIGHT CATEGORY.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
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