545
FXUS61 KCTP 091118
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
718 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT, LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WIND
* HUMIDITY WILL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE NEW JERSEY
TO MAINE COAST EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING SPLENDID
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND AND HIGH
TEMPS NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG F ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE BULK OF
CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES TODAY WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS - ABOUT 7-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.
PWAT VALUES TODAY IN THE 0.75 TO 0.9 OF AN INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVERHEAD AND THE SFC RIDGE
JUST TO OUR EAST, EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPS FOR MINS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
LIGHT WIND AND A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S (NW) TO LOW 60S (IN
THE SE) WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS GOING TO OCCUR WITH
THIS PACKAGE. PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WITHOUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SHOTS OF ENERGY FROM THE WEST, WE
WILL HANG OUR HAT ON THE GENERALIZED 30-40 POPS FOR THE MIDDLE-
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF THE SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTNS AND EVES. OVERALL, POPS FROM NBM ARE MAXIMIZED
ON WED AFTN/EVE WHEN A FRONT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND
IT DROP IN FROM THE N. THE FIRST CHC FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WOULD BE TUES AFTN IN THE W, WITH THE E LIKELY REMAINING
DRY (<=20 POP) FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH 90S BECOMING POSSIBLE STARTING ON WED. BUT, THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SEEMS TO HAVE NUDGED A DEG OR TWO OFF THE
NBM MAXES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S AND L70S. SO, A STRAY 100F
HEAT INDEX IS POSSIBLE (50%) OVER THE SE DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
AND COULD NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TODAY WILL KEEP GOOD VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
VFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)
FLIGHT CATEGORY.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
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