714
FXUS61 KCTP 091921
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK
* MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT
WIND AGAIN SUNDAY
* HUMIDITY WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
VERY FEW CU LEFT FROM EARLIER BUILD UPS SINCE WE WERE ABLE TO
MIX DEEPER AND DRY OUT THE THIN MOIST-ER LAYER. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKY TO CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WIND, TOO, THANKS
TO THE BIG HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE HIGH DOES WEAKEN JUST A MB OR
TWO OVERNIGHT, AND IS STARTING TO SLIDE TO THE EAST VERY VERY
SLOWLY. JUST A SMALL CHC (30%) THAT SOME STRATUS MAY FORM IN
THE ALLEGHENIES, BUT ONLY A SMALL PATCH. MORE LIKELY WILL BE
SOME VALLEY FOG. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER ON THE HILL
TOPS THAN THE SURROUNDING VALLEY BOTTOMS; IN THE 50S FOR
EVERYONE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
CLOUDS LOOK TO BE FEW IF ANY ON SUNDAY. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY. LIGHT WIND CONTINUES, VEERING
JUST 10-20DEGS FROM SATURDAY. MAXES SHOULD BE 1-2F HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY, TOO. HOWEVER, THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE THAT MUCH LOWER,
LEADING TO EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY ARE CARBON COPIES OF THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS EXCEPT ADDING
ANOTHER 1-2F FOR MAXES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THAT WILL GET A
FEW OF THE BIGGER/LOWER-ELEVATION CITIES CLOSE TO 90F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO GET PINCHED THINNER EARLY
IN THE WEEK, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH/MIGRATE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD.
THAT WILL SET UP A GOOD SRLY/MOIST FLOW. EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO
GET MUGGY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
MID-WEEK. A FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM THE N/NW WILL PROBABLY
STALL OUT JUST ABOUT OVER PA AND CAUSE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE WITH A PEAK OF AFTERNOON/DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE PEAK POPS ARE PLACED ON WED, BUT THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND
HOLD A GOOD (30-40%) CHC OF GETTING WET, MORE SO OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES THAN NRN LOCALES.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TODAY WILL KEEP GOOD VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION,
AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
MON...CONTINUED MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND FROM 120-180 DEGREES
SUGGESTS PERIODS OF MVFR (LOW CIGS OR AREAS OF FOG/HZ/BR) WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
VFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT (HIGHEST PROBABILITY)
FLIGHT CATEGORY.
TUE...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...BOWEN/TYBURSKI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page