517  
FXUS61 KCTP 100529  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
129 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES  
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK  
* MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT  
WIND AGAIN SUNDAY  
* HUMIDITY WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD  
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION LATE  
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WIND,  
TOO, THANKS TO THE BIG HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE HIGH DOES WEAKEN  
JUST A MB OR TWO OVERNIGHT, AND IS STARTING TO SLIDE TO THE EAST  
VERY, VERY SLOWLY. JUST A SMALL CHC (30%) THAT SOME STRATUS MAY  
FORM IN THE ALLEGHENIES, BUT ONLY A SMALL PATCH. MORE LIKELY  
WILL BE SOME VALLEY FOG. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER ON  
THE HILL TOPS THAN THE SURROUNDING VALLEY BOTTOMS; IN THE 50S  
FOR EVERYONE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
CLOUDS LOOK TO BE FEW IF ANY ON SUNDAY. ANY MORNING STRATUS AND  
FOG WILL BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY. LIGHT WIND CONTINUES, VEERING  
JUST 10-20DEGS FROM SATURDAY. MAXES SHOULD BE 1-2F HIGHER THAN  
SATURDAY, TOO. HOWEVER, THE DEWPOINTS MAY BE THAT MUCH LOWER,  
LEADING TO EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY ARE CARBON COPIES OF THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS EXCEPT ADDING  
ANOTHER 1-2F FOR MAXES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. THAT WILL GET A  
FEW OF THE BIGGER/LOWER-ELEVATION CITIES CLOSE TO 90F.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO GET PINCHED THINNER EARLY  
IN THE WEEK, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH/MIGRATE INTO THE MID-  
LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD.  
THAT WILL SET UP A GOOD SRLY/MOIST FLOW. EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO  
GET MUGGY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S  
MID-WEEK. A FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM THE N/NW WILL PROBABLY  
STALL OUT JUST ABOUT OVER PA AND CAUSE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO  
INCREASE WITH A PEAK OF AFTERNOON/DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.  
THE PEAK POPS ARE PLACED ON WED, BUT THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND  
HOLD A GOOD (30-40%) CHC OF GETTING WET, MORE SO OVER THE SRN  
COUNTIES THAN NRN LOCALES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
DRY AIR CONTIUES OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS  
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER OVERNIGHT OF RESTRICTION-FREE CONDITIONS.  
GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT  
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MON...VFR  
 
TUE...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON  
 
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER  
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER  
SHORT TERM...DANGELO  
LONG TERM...DANGELO  
AVIATION...TYBURSKI  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page