913
FXUS61 KCTP 101126
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO MONDAY
* MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT
WIND ARE IN STORE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
* HUMIDITY WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL BE FONDLY REMEMBERED FOR BRINGING US THE NICEST
WEEKEND OF THE SUMMER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPS, LIGHT
WIND, COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND ANOTHER PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT.
SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND NW PA INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LEADING TO AIR/WATER DELTA TS AOA 20F. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER ON THE HILL TOPS THAN THE
SURROUNDING VALLEY BOTTOMS; IN THE 50S FOR EVERYONE.
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO RISE 2-3F
RELATIVE TO SATURDAY'S MAXES. ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY OF THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH FROM UPSTATE NY, SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AND VISBY EXCELLENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
(PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 48-49F READINGS ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY (BUT LIKELY 1-2F DEG F WARMER). A FEW OF THE
BIGGER CITIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD PEAK AROUND
90F MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO GET PINCHED THINNER EARLY
IN THE WEEK, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH/MIGRATE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD.
THAT WILL SET UP A GOOD SRLY/MOIST FLOW. EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO
GET MUGGY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
MID-WEEK. A FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM THE N/NW WILL PROBABLY
STALL OUT JUST ABOUT OVER PA AND CAUSE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE WITH A PEAK OF AFTERNOON/DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE PEAK POPS ARE PLACED ON WED, BUT THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND
HOLD A GOOD (30-40%) CHC OF GETTING WET, MORE SO OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES THAN NRN LOCALES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY AIR CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF RESTRICTION-FREE CONDITIONS.
GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR
TUE...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WED-THU...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
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