535  
FXUS61 KCTP 101736  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
136 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
* A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY INTO MONDAY  
* MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT  
WIND ARE IN STORE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT  
* HUMIDITY WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION  
LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY AS A  
WEAK COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC  
REGION WILL BE FONDLY REMEMBERED FOR BRINGING US THE NICEST  
WEEKEND OF THE SUMMER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPS, LIGHT  
WIND, COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND ANOTHER PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT.  
 
SOME FOG WILL BE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL  
AND NW PA INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S LEADING TO AIR/WATER DELTA TS AOA 20F. MIN  
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER ON THE HILL TOPS THAN THE  
SURROUNDING VALLEY BOTTOMS; IN THE 50S FOR EVERYONE.  
 
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO RISE 2-3F  
RELATIVE TO SATURDAY'S MAXES. ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY OF THIN  
CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH FROM UPSTATE NY, SUNSHINE WILL BE  
PLENTIFUL AND VISBY EXCELLENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S  
(PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 48-49F READINGS ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST  
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/  
 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF SAT  
NIGHT/SUNDAY (BUT LIKELY 1-2F DEG F WARMER). A FEW OF THE  
BIGGER CITIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD PEAK AROUND  
90F MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO GET PINCHED THINNER EARLY  
IN THE WEEK, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH/MIGRATE INTO THE MID-  
LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD.  
THAT WILL SET UP A GOOD SRLY/MOIST FLOW. EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO  
GET MUGGY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S  
MID-WEEK. A FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM THE N/NW WILL PROBABLY  
STALL OUT JUST ABOUT OVER PA AND CAUSE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO  
INCREASE WITH A PEAK OF AFTERNOON/DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.  
THE PEAK POPS ARE PLACED ON WED, BUT THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND  
HOLD A GOOD (30-40%) CHC OF GETTING WET, MORE SO OVER THE SRN  
COUNTIES THAN NRN LOCALES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
KEYSTONE STATE TO KEEP DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS  
CENTRAL PA TONIGHT, MONDAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF TUESDAY.  
 
DEWPOINTS ON THE LOW SIDE AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST TO  
BRING THEM UP. AS THE GROUND DRYS OUT MORE, THIS WILL TREND  
TO ADD TO THE AIRMASS NOT GETTING AS MOIST FAST. THUS AS WAS  
THE CASE LATE NIGHT, ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG, BUT NOT  
REALLY ANY CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT THE TAF SITES OVER  
CENTRAL PA.  
 
NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM  
WOULD NOT BE UNTIL WED.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUE...VFR MOST OF THE DAY, A SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA.  
 
THU...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH  
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
FRI...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, MAINLY ACROSS THE  
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER  
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER  
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO  
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO  
AVIATION...MARTIN  
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