311
FXUS61 KCTP 101825
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, SLOWLY WARMING DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND LIGHT
WIND ARE IN STORE ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
* HUMIDITY WILL BUILD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND ELSEWHERE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
* WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL BE FONDLY REMEMBERED FOR BRINGING US THE NICEST
WEEKEND OF THE SUMMER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPS, LIGHT
WIND, COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND ANOTHER PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL EXPERIENCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY
AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL HAVE DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE KEYSTONE STATE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON COPY OF SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY (BUT LIKELY 1-2F DEG F WARMER). A FEW OF THE
BIGGER CITIES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY COULD PEAK AROUND
90F MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDING THE REPEAT
DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AND BECOME
PINCHED BETWEEN AN APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IN THE ATLANTIC OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO GET PINCHED THINNER EARLY
IN THE WEEK, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH/MIGRATE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE EASTWARD.
THAT WILL SET UP A GOOD SRLY/MOIST FLOW. EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO
GET MUGGY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
MID-WEEK. A FRONT PRESSING DOWN FROM THE N/NW WILL PROBABLY
STALL OUT JUST ABOUT OVER PA AND CAUSE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO
INCREASE WITH A PEAK OF AFTERNOON/DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
THE PEAK POPS ARE PLACED ON WED, BUT THURS INTO NEXT WEEKEND
HOLD A GOOD (30-40%) CHC OF GETTING WET, MORE SO OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES THAN NRN LOCALES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
KEYSTONE STATE TO KEEP DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL PA TONIGHT, MONDAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF TUESDAY.
DEWPOINTS ON THE LOW SIDE AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST TO
BRING THEM UP. AS THE GROUND DRYS OUT MORE, THIS WILL TREND
TO ADD TO THE AIRMASS NOT GETTING AS MOIST FAST. THUS AS WAS
THE CASE LATE NIGHT, ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG, BUT NOT
REALLY ANY CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT THE TAF SITES OVER
CENTRAL PA.
NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
WOULD NOT BE UNTIL WED.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR MOST OF THE DAY, A SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA.
THU...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FRI...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BOWEN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BOWEN
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
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