631
FXUS61 KCTP 120816
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
416 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HUMID WITH LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY
* MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALL WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
AND LAURELS. WHILE NOT A WIDESPREAD DECK YET, IT IS EXPANDING.
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD HAVE THESE CLOUDS (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
1500-2000FT ALOFT). THAT COULD MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR US TO
REACH THE NBM MEAN MAXTS. BUT, MIXING SHOULD HELP BREAK THESE
CLOUDS UP FOR THE MOST PART. WITHOUT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE CLOUDS, WE'LL HANG CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE
TIME BEING. MANY OF THE CAMS POP TALLER CU AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY S OF UNV. THEY'LL GET TALLEST
OVER THE RIDGES/HIGH GROUND AND ONLY DRIFT AWAY SLIGHTLY.
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY SPARSE, AND
ONLY WORTHY OF A 20-30 POP.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ALL OF THE POP-UP SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE OFF
AROUND SUNSET. THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL REALLY BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OH OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM GET INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER SUSQ WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S.
PRE-FRONTAL WEAKNESSES IN THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO CONTINUE GOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE CWA. THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THE
STORMS WITH SKINNY BUT TALL CAPE NW, AND FATTER CAPE AS YOU MOVE
SE. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30KT FOR BFD, BUT ONLY 20KT AT
UNV AND MDT. THESE NUMBERS AREN'T ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERNS HIGH
ENOUGH TO THE SPC OUTLOOKS, BUT A STRONG-ER STORM IS POSSIBLE.
THE HIGH PWAT (1.7-2.0") AND SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY MAKE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THAT SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A CONCERN, EITHER DUE TO
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST WEEK PLUS. IT'S BEEN ABOUT
TWO WEEKS SINCE HAPPY VALLEY HAS HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
LANCASTER AND BEDFORD COUNTIES HAD VERY HEAVY RAIN ~10-12 DAYS
AGO, BUT NOT MUCH (IF ANYTHING) SINCE THEN.
THE FRONT SEEMS LIKE IT MOVES ONLY SLOWLY WHEN IT GETS INTO
CENTRAL PA, AND SHOULD YIELD MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT
THESE TO DRAG IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF WED
NIGHT. THE DRY AIR DOES MAKE INROADS ACROSS THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HALF OF THE CWA WILL STILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DRY AIR ON
THURSDAY, SO EXPECT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR FROM WED-THURS.
LOWERING HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME MINOR TEMPORARY
RELIEF, BUT OVERALL THERE IS NO END TO THE RUN OF HOT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID AUGUST. ANOTHER DRY SPELL LOOKS
PROBABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THE
POPS OFF THE NBM NEVER QUITE GET BELOW 20 ACROSS THE S. THERE IS
GOING TO BE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY OR MONDAY
AS ANOTHER FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THAT
FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG A BIT WITH SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS MON AND
TUES. IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS GET BACK NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR COVERS 95+ PERCENT OF THE STATE AT 06Z TUESDAY WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS DRIFTING SE INTO THE REGION.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG/LOW STRATUS FOR 4-6
HOURS LATER THIS MORNING AND IN TO THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS ARE AT KMDT/KLNS
(>60%). THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX OUT WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z TUE. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF THESE OUT OF THE
TAFS UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WED...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS.
THU...LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AIRSPACE.
FRI...AM FOG POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE VFR.
SAT...VFR/NO SIG WX.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BAUCO
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