633
FXUS61 KCTP 011814
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK, FEATURING COOL NIGHTS, AND WARM COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS
* AURORA BOREALIS MAY BE VISIBLE TONIGHT; GEOMAGNETIC STORM
WATCH IN EFFECT
* NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED IN FAR WESTERN PA
* MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD
FRONT
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS, MORE IN THE WAY OF EASTERLY FLOW, IN
COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING WESTWARD FROM THE
COAST HAS RESULTED IN SOME CU FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NICE FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY,
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VALLEY FOG IS NOT AS LIKELY TONIGHT AS IN MANY PREVIOUS MORNINGS,
MAINLY DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND ANOTHER DAY TO DRY OUT. LOWS WILL
COOL OFF TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM ON THURSDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA
BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA,
SO THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LIMITED. AS WAS
THE CASE LAST THURSDAY EVENING, THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SUCH
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER LAKE ERIE, WHERE THE WARM WATERS CAN ADD
MOISTURE.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT STRONG
STORMS, BUT NOT UNDER ANY OUTLOOKS AT THIS POINT.
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS AS ONE GETS
OUT TO DAY 10, BUT LITTLE SIGNAL FOR ANY EXTENDED WARM SPELLS.
FLOW FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A BIT TOO MUCH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH LATE EFFECT, BUT DID ADJUST POPS A BIT
HIGHER FOR A FEW SMALL AREAS ACROSS THE NW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, BUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS STILL EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHWEST. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT BFD, BUT PROBS TOO LOW FOR MENTIONING IN THE TAF.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 6000
AND 8000 FEET ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING AND EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE OCEAN.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA IS ON THURSDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE; OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR.
WED...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF JST.
THU...WIDESPREAD SHRA EXPECTED WITH TSRA POSSIBLE.
FRI...SHOWERS LINGERING, MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST.
CLIMATE
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 39 DEGREES WAS SET AT ALTOONA
YESTERDAY, AUG 31. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES SET
IN 1986.
ALSO ONLY .49 INCHES OF RAIN AT JOHNSTOWN IN AUGUST. OLD RECORD
WAS .89 INCHES IN 1894.
THIS AUGUST COOLEST IN SPOTS SINCE AUGUST 2014.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...COLBERT
CLIMATE...COLBERT
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