502
FXUS61 KCTP 050147
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
947 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
* HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTROLS THE WX FOR A WEEK.
* AFTER A SLIGHT COOLING SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE TEMPERATURES
WARM SLOWLY EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY EXIT TO THE
EAST. WITHOUT SOLAR HELP, THE TREND OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. EXPECT SOME TO BE LINGERING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES. CLEARING HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE WEST, AND
SO HAS FOG. BFD, DUJ AND FIG ALL DOWN TO 1/4SM AND 100FT CIG AT
0145Z. WE WILL RAMP UP MENTIONS OF FOG FOR ALL OF THE AREA, AND
POTENTIALLY ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVY AS THE FOG SHOWS IT'S HAND.
WITHOUT ANY WIND AND REASON FOR THE DEWPOINTS TO DIP MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES, THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE AND EXPAND.
SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ON FRIDAY, AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES IN MID-MORNING, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY REGAIN CONTROL OF THE REGION GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND ANOTHER SEASONABLY MILD
DAY. IT WILL STILL BE RATHER HUMID ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (60-65F DEWPOINTS). HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
UP TO 10F WARMER FRI VS THURS IN THE WESTERN ZONES/HILLS, AND
PERHAPS 1-2F WARMER IN THE SE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A PREVAILING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, PERHAPS LIFTING A BIT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY SATURDAY, A STRONGER COLD FRONT (COMPARED TO THURSDAY) WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKE A
GOOD BET. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WILL LIKELY BE IN SOUTHEAST PA AND AN SPC MARGINAL RISK
IS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, ANOTHER FALL-LIKE PATTERN
WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PAIR WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S TO 50S. FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET
FOR THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN NORTHWEST PA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO IPT/MDT/LNS THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER 03Z FRIDAY, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR-TO-
IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS AT BFD/JST/IPT WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AT MDT/LNS
GIVEN CURRENT SHRA/TSRA IN THE AREA. UNV/AOO REMAIN THE MOST
UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO LOW CLOD/FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT;
HOWEVER, FAIRLY GOOD SIGNALS STILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST MVFR
RESTRICTIONS CLOSER TO SUNRISE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
HREF/RAP MODEL GUIDANCE.
CLEARING WILL BE RELATIVELY QUICK AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW; HOWEVER, IPT WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH ~14Z FRIDAY. CLEARING SKIES ARE
PROJECTED BY THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE PROGGED BY A COMBINATION OF HREF/GLAMP/RAP MODEL
GUIDANCE, THUS HAVE KEPT CLOUD COVER IN WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...CHANCE OF SHRA W/ TSRA POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SE.
SUN-MON...CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY.
TUE-WED...CLEAR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/BANGHOFF/BOWEN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/BOWEN
AVIATION...NPB
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