258
FXUS61 KCTP 060839
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND EASTERN
PA TODAY WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, MORNING FOG, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
* THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN PA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AT 08Z THIS SATURDAY, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) WAS
LOCATED NEAR KIPT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
POCONOS TO NYC, WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM TO
KIPT, KUNV TO KIDI.
A SHOT OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (AND MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER) MOVING NE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA
THROUGH 15-16Z TODAY.
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM BRINGING 0.10 TO 0.25 OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND THE SUSQUEHANNA'S WEST BRANCH
VALLEY.
THE CURRENT, ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG, NORTH, AND WEST OF THE
I-99/I-80 CORRIDOR, BUT RAIN WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUTDOOR
TAILGATING FESTIVITIES. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN PA.
SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA (AND THREAT FOR LOCALLY SVR TSRA) EXTENDS ACROSS ABOUT 1/2
OF LANCASTER COUNTY. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE
COMBINE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY.
THE CURRENT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSRA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR
AWHILE AS THE MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS IS A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RAMP UP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS
WELL THANKS TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CARRYING COOL AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE
AGAIN EXHIBIT QUITE A SPREAD, ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE
CLOUDY/RAINY/POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN THE NORTHWEST AND GETTING
INTO THE MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEFORE THE STORMS IN THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE AIR-WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PROMOTE
DENDRITIC FOG FORMATION. WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S COULD BE OBSERVED IN FAR
NORTHWEST PA AND MOST SPOTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO UPPER
50S FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, ANOTHER FALL-LIKE PATTERN
WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE
SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PAIR WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S TO 50S. FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET
FOR THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN NORTHWEST PA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 00Z.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WERE POPPING UP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA, AND
HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FOR -SHRA AT BFD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA LATE THIS
EVENING AND COULD IMPACT JST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES, ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PA AND COULD REACH THE CENTRAL MTNS (AOO, UNV,
IPT) BY DAYBREAK. ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY, FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE VICINITY
OF MDT AND LNS BY DAYBREAK ON SAT. (OF NOTE, HAVE EASED OFF OF
THE LOW CIGS/FOG FOR IPT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SAT, AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AND WE'RE
STARTING THE NIGHT WITH A MUCH LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THAN
WE SAW LAST EVENING. STILL WORTH MONITORING THOUGH.)
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN PA AND INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. BY AFTERNOON, WE COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY, BUT
HAVE HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH A PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT LNS
SAT AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...CLEARING WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY.
TUE-WED...CLEAR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF
AVIATION...EVANEGO
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