853
FXUS61 KCTP 061722
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND EASTERN
PA TODAY WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, MORNING FOG, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
* THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN PA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 08Z THIS SATURDAY, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) WAS
LOCATED NEAR KIPT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
POCONOS TO NYC, WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KBGM TO
KIPT, KUNV TO KIDI.
A SHOT OF POTENT ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN (AND MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER) MOVING NE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA
THROUGH 15-16Z TODAY.
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL OCCUR BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM BRINGING 0.10 TO 0.25 OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND THE SUSQUEHANNA'S WEST BRANCH
VALLEY.
THE ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ALONG, NORTH, AND WEST OF THE I-99/I-80
CORRIDOR, BUT RAIN WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUTDOOR TAILGATING
FESTIVITIES. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL INCREASE THANKS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN PA.
SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA (AND THREAT FOR LOCALLY SVR TSRA) EXTENDS ACROSS ABOUT 1/2
OF LANCASTER COUNTY. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE
COMBINE TO BRING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY SEVERE CONVECTION TODAY.
THE CURRENT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS
PASSAGE WILL KEEP THE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSRA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL DISPLAY A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST,
AND WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE CLOUDY/RAINY/POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER NW PA, BUT SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEFORE THE STORMS ENTER THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR
AWHILE AS THE MOISTURE AT MID-LEVELS IS A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RAMP UP DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS
WELL THANKS TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CARRYING COOL AIR OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE AIR-WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PROMOTE
DENDRITIC FOG FORMATION. WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S COULD BE OBSERVED IN FAR
NORTHWEST PA AND MOST SPOTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO UPPER
50S FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER FALL-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S WILL PAIR WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO 50S. FROST OR FREEZE
CONDITIONS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN
NORTHWEST PA EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO IMPACT MDT AND LNS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THOSE SITES AS WELL,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT MDT AND LNS INTO THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF UNV, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT BFD, JST, AND IPT IS LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST PA TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BFD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE REST
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...CLEARING WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY.
TUE-WED...VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page