658
FXUS61 KCTP 070803
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
403 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES.
* HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, MORNING FOG, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
* THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST MOVES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
NORTHERN PA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING, WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO WANE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DRY
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHERE AIR-WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PROMOTE
DENDRITIC FOG FORMATION. WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S COULD BE OBSERVED IN FAR
NORTHWEST PA AND MOST SPOTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO UPPER
50S FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY AND LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS C WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE ERIE WATERS
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD PRIMARILY STAY NORTHWEST US-6, BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE
I-80/I-99 CORRIDOR.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE COMMONWEALTH
AS TEMPERATURES TREND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A GUSTY WEST WIND AND REFRESHINGLY LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A
PERFECT FALL DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY MORNING,
BRINGING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG AND FROST ACROSS
NORTHERN PA. A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST
FREEZE OF THE YEAR. FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN PA. LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN MCKEAN COUNTY TO NEAR 50 IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THANKS TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS (10TH PERCENTILE PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FALL-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE
AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO
FAR. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PAIR WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO
50S. FROST CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS IN NORTHWEST PA WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG
CONTINUING EACH MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND MDT AND LNS THROUGH
SUNRISE, BUT NO REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO TOWARD SUNRISE, PATCHY
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF UNV, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY
RESTRICTIONS AT BFD, JST, AND IPT IS LOW. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST PA TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BFD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE REST
OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...CLEARING WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY.
TUE-THUR...VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF/NPB
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF/NPB
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF
AVIATION...GARTNER/RXR
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