312
FXUS61 KCTP 111816
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
216 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A PREDOMINANTLY RAIN-FREE STRETCH OF SEASONABLE WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH INCREASINGLY WARM
DAYS AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. DIURNAL CU POPPED OVER THE RIDGES AND ARE
CURRENTLY A LITTLE CONGESTED IN THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER, DRY AIR
CAN BE SEEN ENTRAINING AND IS STARTING TO DIMINISH THOSE CU.
EVERYONE WILL GET RID OF THEIR CU AT OR BEFORE SUNSET. THE WIND
WILL DIE OFF AND THE TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP COOL ENOUGH TO MAKE
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER TONIGHT OVER THE SE WITHOUT THE CLOUDS
THEY HAD LAST NIGHT. BUT, MOST OTHER PLACES WILL NOT DROP AS LOW
AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. MINS SHOULD HIT THE 40S N AND 50-55F
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MEET THE NEW FORECAST. SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST. DRY. CUMULUS
WILL BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER PHENOMENON ON FRI AND SAT,
TOO. THE E SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN THE W ON FRI. LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SAT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN FROM THE EAST BY MORNING.
THESE WILL MOST LIKELY MIX AWAY, AT LEAST PARTIALLY. TEMPS...
SLOWLY WARMING BOTH OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAYTIMES. FRI MAXES
GENERALLY 75-80F WITH L80S IN THE SRN VALLEYS. SAT MAXES OF
NEARLY 90F ARE POSSIBLE IN SRN FRANKLIN CO. EVEN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NRN MTNS COULD HIT 80F. THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
IS ALSO NOTABLE. MINRH IN THE 30S WILL MAKE YOU THIRSTY QUICKLY.
BE PREPARED FOR THE UNUSUAL HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY AND SUNSHINE
IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE ON SAT. RED FLAG/FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH RH ABOVE 30% EACH AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND WIND VERY LIGHT AS WE SIT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DRY FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY, AND THERE IS STILL A FAR
OUTSIDE CHANCE (<20%) THAT A SHOWER COULD MAKE THE GROUND WET
ACROSS THE N. BUT, WE'VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, NOW, FOLLOWING THE TREND ON THE NBM POPS. TEMPS
STAY UNUSUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MOST
INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
(POSSIBLE) DEVELOPMENT OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
SEEMS TO BE A TREND WORTH WATCHING. THAT WOULD BE OUR NEXT HOPE
FOR RAINFALL. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE'LL KEEP WITH NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND UNMENTIONABLE POPS. EVEN OUT AT DAY 7-8 OUR MAXES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND U70S ON THE
HIGHER GROUND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONTINUES. ONLY A DIP INTO IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE N AND CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT, AS WITH EVERY SEPTEMBER MORN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND LIGHT.
THAT MAKES FOR ONE-LINE TAFS FOR MANY TERMINALS. EXPECT FRI AND
SAT TO BE VERY MUCH LIKE TODAY/THURS WITH AM VALLEY FOG,
WIDESPREAD VFR DAYS AND LIGHT WIND. GRADUALLY WARMER DAYS AND
NIGHTS COULD DECREASE THE VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR AM VALLEY FOG.
SAT PM-SUN PM...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA POSS N.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. -RA POSS E.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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