514
FXUS61 KCTP 112231
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
631 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A PREDOMINANTLY RAIN-FREE STRETCH OF SEASONABLE WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH INCREASINGLY WARM
DAYS AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. DIURNAL CU POPPED OVER THE RIDGES AND ARE
CURRENTLY A LITTLE CONGESTED IN THE SRN MTNS. HOWEVER, DRY AIR
CAN BE SEEN ENTRAINING AND IS STARTING TO DIMINISH THOSE CU.
EVERYONE WILL GET RID OF THEIR CU AT OR BEFORE SUNSET. THE WIND
WILL DIE OFF AND THE TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP COOL ENOUGH TO MAKE
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL SPOTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER TONIGHT OVER THE SE WITHOUT THE CLOUDS
THEY HAD LAST NIGHT. BUT, MOST OTHER PLACES WILL NOT DROP AS LOW
AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. MINS SHOULD HIT THE 40S N AND 50-55F
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MEET THE NEW FORECAST. SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST. DRY. CUMULUS
WILL BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER PHENOMENON ON FRI AND SAT,
TOO. THE E SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN THE W ON FRI. LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SAT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN FROM THE EAST BY MORNING.
THESE WILL MOST LIKELY MIX AWAY, AT LEAST PARTIALLY. TEMPS...
SLOWLY WARMING BOTH OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAYTIMES. FRI MAXES
GENERALLY 75-80F WITH L80S IN THE SRN VALLEYS. SAT MAXES OF
NEARLY 90F ARE POSSIBLE IN SRN FRANKLIN CO. EVEN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NRN MTNS COULD HIT 80F. THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
IS ALSO NOTABLE. MINRH IN THE 30S WILL MAKE YOU THIRSTY QUICKLY.
BE PREPARED FOR THE UNUSUAL HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY AND SUNSHINE
IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE ON SAT. RED FLAG/FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH RH ABOVE 30% EACH AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND WIND VERY LIGHT AS WE SIT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DRY FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY, AND THERE IS STILL A FAR
OUTSIDE CHANCE (<20%) THAT A SHOWER COULD MAKE THE GROUND WET
ACROSS THE N. BUT, WE'VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, NOW, FOLLOWING THE TREND ON THE NBM POPS. TEMPS
STAY UNUSUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MOST
INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
(POSSIBLE) DEVELOPMENT OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
SEEMS TO BE A TREND WORTH WATCHING. THAT WOULD BE OUR NEXT HOPE
FOR RAINFALL. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE'LL KEEP WITH NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND UNMENTIONABLE POPS. EVEN OUT AT DAY 7-8 OUR MAXES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND U70S ON THE
HIGHER GROUND.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY, SO EXPECT LESS
FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH LONGER NIGHTS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT
WINDS, STILL POSSIBLE AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG AT SITES LIKE
IPT; AND PERHAPS AOO AND UNV, AS WAS THE CASE NIGHT. FOG LESS
LIKELY AT JST. FAR SOUTHEAST SITES LIKE MDT AND LNS WILL NOT
HAVE THE MID CLDS THEY HAD LAST EVENING, SO SO THESE SITES WILL
COOL OFF MORE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT, SO WILL MONITOR FOR FOG
FORMATION THERE. FOR NOW, LEFT FOG OUT OF THESE SITES.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SMALL CHC OF FOG EACH MORNING. REALLY
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, GIVEN CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR EXCEPT FOR AM VALLEY FOG.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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