161
FXUS61 KCTP 120537
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
* AN EXTENDED AND PREDOMINANTLY RAIN-FREE STRETCH OF SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH
INCREASINGLY WARM DAYS AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS, RIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A LARGE, 1028 MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN JAMES
BAY CANADA AND GEORGIAN BAY WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE DRY AND
PLEASANT AIR INTO THE REGION AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
JUST SOME VERY PATCHY, HIGH-BASED CU/ALTO CU WILL BE DRIFTING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY LOCATIONS,
ALLOWING VALLEY FOG TO FORM IN THE USUAL SPOTS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PA.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER TONIGHT OVER THE SE WITHOUT THE
FAIRLY THICK LOW CLOUD BLANKET THEY HAD LAST NIGHT. BUT, MOST
OTHER PLACES WILL NOT DROP AS LOW AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT. MINS
SHOULD HIT THE 40S N AND 50-55F ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MEET THE NEW FORECAST. SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST. DRY. CUMULUS
WILL BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER PHENOMENON ON FRI AND SAT,
TOO. THE E SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN THE W ON FRI. LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SAT MAY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN FROM THE EAST BY MORNING.
THESE WILL MOST LIKELY MIX AWAY, AT LEAST PARTIALLY. TEMPS...
SLOWLY WARMING BOTH OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAYTIMES. FRI MAXES
GENERALLY 75-80F WITH L80S IN THE SRN VALLEYS. SAT MAXES OF
NEARLY 90F ARE POSSIBLE IN SRN FRANKLIN CO. EVEN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NRN MTNS COULD HIT 80F. THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
IS ALSO NOTABLE. MINRH IN THE 30S WILL MAKE YOU THIRSTY QUICKLY.
BE PREPARED FOR THE UNUSUAL HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY AND SUNSHINE
IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE ON SAT. RED FLAG/FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH RH ABOVE 30% EACH AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA AND WIND VERY LIGHT AS WE SIT UNDER THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DRY FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY, AND THERE IS STILL A FAR
OUTSIDE CHANCE (<20%) THAT A SHOWER COULD MAKE THE GROUND WET
ACROSS THE N. BUT, WE'VE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND, NOW, FOLLOWING THE TREND ON THE NBM POPS. TEMPS
STAY UNUSUALLY WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MOST
INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING PART TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
(POSSIBLE) DEVELOPMENT OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
SEEMS TO BE A TREND WORTH WATCHING. THAT WOULD BE OUR NEXT HOPE
FOR RAINFALL. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE'LL KEEP WITH NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND UNMENTIONABLE POPS. EVEN OUT AT DAY 7-8 OUR MAXES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS AND U70S ON THE
HIGHER GROUND.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN VALLEY FOG FORMATION,
BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL ACTUALLY
BE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN EAST OF BFD AND NORTH OF IPT, BUT THERE IS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE THAT THOSE TWO SITES SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SOME POINT
DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE THAT FOG IMPACTS
SITES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT UNV AND AOO.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z AND WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
GO CALM.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR EXCEPT FOR AM VALLEY FOG.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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