507
FXUS61 KCTP 120802
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
402 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
* DRY/RAIN-FREE STRETCH FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NOTICEABLY COOLER (-5 TO -10F VS. LAST NIGHT) AND DRIER/LESS
HUMID START TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. AOO/HMZ CONTINUE
TO SET THE PACE AS OF LATE BEING THE RESPECTIVE COLD SPOTS ON
THE LATEST OBS MAP AS OF 07UTC. IR SAT TRENDS INDICATE THERE
WILL BE SOME PREDAWN TO POST SUNRISE VALLEY FOG TO CONTEND WITH
EARLY THIS MORNING; OTHERWISE WE EXPECT ANOTHER STELLAR TO
SEASONABLY WARM DAY IN CPA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER TO DOWNEAST MAINE.
SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND.
WE ARE KEEN TO LEAN A BIT LOWER VS. MODEL GUIDANCE ON TD/MINRH
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON MAXT AS THE GO-TO PLAYBOOK MOVES IN THIS
TYPE OF STAGNANT/DRY PATTERN. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
ARE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE DAILY CLIMO. MAINLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG AND MIN TEMPS 45-60F. SOME
LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW; SOMETHING TO
MONITOR GOING FWD WITH THE BEST HREF SKY COVER SIGNAL OVER NJ.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TRENDING WARMER TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS
AND MAX TEMPS 75-85F OR +5-10F ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE.
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BY
SUNDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, BUT WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY LIGHT/STRAY
SHOWER NEAR THE POCONOS SAT PM. EXPANSIVE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WHICH ENSURES A DRY AND RATHER WARM
END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FCST TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 80S OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY PATTERN WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS IS
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS WE WIND DOWN THE FINAL DAYS OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING MODEL
VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW FCST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR NOW, CONSENSUS FAVORS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WX FCST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN VALLEY FOG FORMATION,
BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL ACTUALLY
BE. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN EAST OF BFD AND NORTH OF IPT, BUT THERE IS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE THAT THOSE TWO SITES SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY AT SOME POINT
DURING THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE THAT FOG IMPACTS
SITES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT UNV AND AOO.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z AND WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER DAY OF
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
GO CALM.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...VFR EXCEPT FOR AM VALLEY FOG.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page