229
FXUS61 KCTP 121748
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
148 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY/RAIN-FREE STRETCH ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KCCX REALLY PICKING UP THE UPDRAFTS/THERMALS ON TOP OF THE
RIDGES, LIKELY THANKS TO THE BUGS FLOATING AROUND AND BEING
LIFTED. THE CUMULUS WILL DIE AWAY AS WE LOSE THE SUN. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AND THE
NIGHTS BEFORE. SO, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE LESS VALLEY
FOG, TOO. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MOISTURE HANGING IN THE EAST
(WHERE THE MOST CU ARE AT 18Z), AND SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE SUSQ R. WILL JUST HINT AT THAT
POSSIBILITY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND MENTIONS OF PATCHY FOG.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BIG BUBBLE, NO TROUBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR MANY
DAYS. SUNRISE SAT SHOULD MIX AWAY ANY AM FOG OR LOW- ISH CLOUDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SPIN SHOULD YIELD CLOUDS, BUT NO PRECIP FOR US
LATER SAT AND EARLY SAT NIGHT. DIURNAL/SFC- BASED CUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN, AND MID & HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
STATE FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE DAY. MANY PLACES COULD HAVE 100%
CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTN, BUT ONLY 50-70% OPACITY. THERE IS A
ONLY A VERY TINY (5-10%) CHANCE THAT A DRIP OR TWO COULD REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NRN TIER. THE 1) RECENT VERY-DRY SPELL WE
ARE GOING THROUGH AND 2) THE USUALLY-DRIER NORTHERN STREAM TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM MAKE MEASURABLE RAIN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OUTCOME. DRY AGAIN SUNDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. BOTH SAT AND
SUN WILL HOLD SIMILAR TEMPS. MAXES SHOULD GET WELL (10F) ABOVE
NORMALS BOTH DAYS, REACHING THE UPPER 80S IN GREENCASTLE AND MID
80S FOR MOST OTHER CITIES SOUTH AND EAST OF STATE COLLEGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LONG TERM PATTERN REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM: HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
STILL THERE, BUT MOST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS IT FARTHER SOUTH (GA-
SC) AND NOT MOVING TOO MUCH FARTHER N. SO, THE POPS HAVE BEEN
LIMITED TO JUST 15% IN THE FAR SE FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WITH MANY HIGH-BASED CU AROUND, BUT NOTHING TO MAKE RAIN.
EVEN IF SOMETHING FALLS OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUD, IT WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. IT MIGHT MAKE IT A LITTLE
BUMPY UNDER THE CLOUD, THOUGH, AS COOLER AIR SINKS OUT OF THE
CLOUD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OUR LONG STRETCH OF VFR. AS WITH THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WE'LL HAVE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE TEMPS
WILL WORK OUT A DEG OR TWO MILDER TONIGHT, AND COULD RESULT IN
LESS FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. THERE'S ACTUALLY A
BETTER (30%) CHANCE OF FOG OF <1SM TO FORM IN THE SE (MDT AND
LNS) THAN OVER ALL THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PA TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL JUST HINT AT FOG AT BFD AND THOSE TWO SITES IN THE
TAF FOR NOW. VFR AND DRY WITH SCT CUMULUS AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
OVERRIDING ON SAT. SUNDAY LOOKS MORE SUNNY WITH EVEN LESS
CHANCE/COVERAGE OF FOG SUN AM THAN SAT AM.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR EXCEPT FOR AM VALLEY FOG.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...DANGELO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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